Monthly regional updates
Update
Regional Overview: Middle East | July 2023
Summary of key political and military developments in Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Syria, and Yemen.
Iraq: Sadrist Movement leads demonstrations against Quran burning
Demonstrations over Quran burnings in Sweden and Denmark continued in Iraq in July, accounting for 35% of all demonstrations recorded by ACLED across the country. Demonstrators, mainly followers of the prominent Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, stormed the Swedish embassy on 20 July, causing a fire. Two days later, they tried to storm the Green Zone to attack the Danish embassy. During the month of July, the Sadrist Movement participated in or organized nearly half of demonstrations against Quran burnings. Sadr’s followers also stormed the offices of the Dawa party in several cities on 15 July following accusations that the rival party insulted the late Grand Ayatullah Muhammad al-Sadr. Sadrists’ recent mobilizations exhibit the ongoing ability of the influential cleric to create demonstration-based instability in the country, despite the withdrawal of his movement from politics last April. Unconfirmed reports further suggest that Sadr is considering participating in December’s provincial elections.1
Israel: Domestic political crisis worsens as judiciary reform bill passes in parliament
On 24 July, Israeli parliament passed the first bill of a judicial overhaul sought by the right-wing government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which removes the Supreme Court’s authority to cancel government decisions it deems unreasonable.1 The bill was ratified despite widespread domestic and international opposition, including a call by United States President Joe Biden to postpone the vote.3 Hundreds of demonstrations have been held against the judicial reforms across the country since the start of 2023, with more demonstration events already recorded in the first seven months of the year than any full year since the beginning of ACLED data collection for Israel in 2016. In July, the number of demonstration events increased by over 60% compared to the month prior. Nationwide labor strikes were also reported in different sectors, including the tech and healthcare sectors. Furthermore, at least 1,000 Israeli army reservists – including combat pilots – are believed to have resigned in protest against the bill, with thousands of others threatening to stop reporting for duty.4 Israel’s internal turmoil is likely to intensify as the government continues to proceed with the reforms.
Palestine: Elevated tensions as Israel carries out biggest West Bank operation in 20 years
In early July, Israel launched a major aerial and ground offensive in the Jenin area, claiming to target a militant “joint operational command center.”5 The raid is believed to have been the largest military operation in the West Bank in two decades. During the two-day operation, at least 12 Palestinian militants and one Israeli soldier were reportedly killed, while more than 100 people were injured. Amid a twofold increase in political violence involving armed groups in the West Bank over the past 12 months compared to the same preceding period, the Jenin refugee camp has become a hotbed of armed engagement between Palestinian militants and the Israeli army. Despite the Jenin operation, political violence involving Palestinian armed groups continued in July at levels similar to the month prior, with the northern governorates of Nablus, Jenin, and Tulkarm continuing to be the center of armed activity.
Syria: Rising tensions between QSD and the Arab majority in Dayr al-Zawr governorate
On 25 July, widespread clashes took place between the Syrian Democratic Forces (QSD) and its affiliate, the Dayr al-Zawr Military Council (DMC), in several towns and villages in eastern Dayr al-Zawr governorate following the arrest of several DMC members by QSD’s military police. The DMC, an Arab-majority military council, was supported by various Arab tribal militias during the fighting. Although clashes subsided after the intervention of the Global Coalition Forces, they brought to the forefront the fraught relationship between the Kurdish-led QSD and the Arab majority in Dayr al-Zawr governorate.1 The clashes were preceded by more than a year of protests and riots denouncing QSD policies and violence against Arab civilians and the lack of basic services, despite the governorate’s wealth in oil and gas resources. Furthermore, in recent months, the region saw an escalation in communal and tribal violence as a result of a growing security vacuum, allowing for further friction between local populations and the QSD.
Yemen: Power outages fuel demonstrations in southern Yemen
Demonstrations broke out in southern Yemen, sparked on 12 July by the depreciation of the Yemeni rial and worsening power outages. Demonstrations took place in Aden and in the southern governorates of Abyan, Lahij, and Hadramawt. In Aden, demonstrations more than doubled in July compared to the average of the previous six months, as the southern port city reached its highest demonstration levels since December 2021. Houthi forces could take advantage of the ongoing unrest to justify future attacks on southern Yemen under the auspices that the population is suffering at the hands of the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG) and the Southern Transitional Council (STC). Yemen spiraled into a civil war in 2014 when the Houthis ousted the IRG from Sanaa. The IRG is now based in Aden, although the city is largely controlled by the secessionist STC.
