Ukraine Conflict Monitor
Update
Ukraine war situation update | 10 – 16 January 2026
President Volodymyr Zelenskyi declares a state of emergency in the energy sector as Russia intensifies its targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Key stats
1,554 political violence events
3% increase compared to the previous three weeks
89 incidents of violence targeting civilians
19% increase compared to the previous three weeks
At least 27 fatalities from civilian targeting
16% decrease compared to the previous three weeks
Key events
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12 Jan.
Kharkiv — Russia strikes a postal service terminal in Novyi Korotych, killing four civilians and wounding six others
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13 Jan.
Black Sea — Suspected Ukrainian drones strike two oil tankers heading to a terminal near Russian Novorossiysk
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15 Jan.
Odesa — Russian missiles hit port infrastructure and a Maltese-flagged vessel in Chornomorsk
Key trends
- Russian forces claimed to have captured a village east of Hlukhiv in the Sumy region after crossing the international border north of Russian-held territory in the region. Russian forces also seized three villages north and northeast of Huliaipole in the Zaporizhia region, close to the administrative boundary with the Dnipropetrovsk region.
- Ukrainian forces regained a settlement northeast of Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region.
- Russian forces launched at least 34 long-range missile and drone attacks, with over half affecting Kyiv city, the surrounding region, and the northern region of Zhytomyr.
- Russian strikes killed at least 22 civilians in the Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhia regions. Ukrainian drones reportedly killed five civilians in the Russian-controlled parts of the Kherson and Luhansk regions.
Spotlight: Civilians face the coldest winter of the invasion as the war on energy infrastructure intensifies
On 12 and 13 January, Russia carried out a wave of strikes targeting energy infrastructure in Ukraine, including a thermal power plant, a gas pipeline, and power substations across several regions. This led to power outages in the Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Chernihiv, and Zaporizhia regions, as well as Kyiv city and the eponymous region.1 Similar strikes took place throughout the week. One likely destroyed another thermal power plant near Kharkiv city on 15 January. Energy blackouts also interrupted heating and water supply for millions of people, with outages sometimes lasting for days, particularly in Kyiv city,2 while lasting subzero temperatures and snowstorms have also driven up demand for energy and further complicated repairs.3 President Volodymyr Zelenskyi declared a state of emergency in the energy sector on 14 January and set up a task force in Kyiv to coordinate an around-the-clock response.4 Russia’s current campaign of targeting Ukraine’s energy escalated ahead of the heating season in September last year. Since then, ACLED has recorded around 600 Russian strike events that have resulted in damage to energy infrastructure.
As the energy situation in Ukraine worsens, Ukrainian forces have responded in kind by targeting energy infrastructure in Russia and Russian-occupied territories. Last week, Ukrainian drones struck power plants in Russia’s Rostov, Bryansk, and Oryol regions, as well as in occupied Mariupol in the Donetsk region. Attacks on 12 January led to the largest power and heating outage in the Belgorod region thus far.5
Russia’s profitable oil exports also remain a prime target for Ukraine’s attacks. On 10 and 11 January, Ukraine hit an oil depot in the Volgograd region and three oil and gas platforms in the Caspian Sea. Russia has also accused Ukraine of striking two oil tankers, one Maltese-flagged and another Liberian-flagged, en route to the Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka terminal near Novorossiysk to load Kazakh-produced oil for export. As was the case during the November attack on this terminal, Kazakhstan condemned the strikes on the vessels.6
For more, see the ACLED 2026 Conflict Watchlist report, Exhausted Ukraine faces military and diplomatic pressure to cede the Donbas.
Explore the ACLED Conflict Exposure Calculator to assess the number of people affected by armed violence, disaggregated by locations, time period, and actors involved.
