Ukraine War Situation Update: 12 - 18 October 2024

• 1,037 political violence events - 11% decrease compared to last week

• 52 incidents of violence targeted at civilians - 27% decrease compared to last week

• At least 16 fatalities from civilian targeting - 59% decrease compared to last week

Key trends

• In the Donetsk region, Russian forces occupied three settlements in the Kurakhove direction and another north of Donetsk city. Russian forces also advanced north and south of Selydove and south of Chasiv Yar.
• Along the Donetsk-Luhansk administrative boundary, Russia seized a village northwest of Kreminna. Russian forces continued to advance towards Kupiansk, reaching the western bank of the Oskil river, though Ukrainian military intelligence troops regained a village in the area.
• ACLED records 19 Russian long-range missile and drone strikes, targeting various regions including Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Kirovograd, and others, while Ukrainian forces intercepted numerous strikes.
• Russian shelling, missiles, and drones killed at least 15 civilians across Ukraine. Ukrainian drone strikes and shelling killed two civilians in the Russia-occupied Horlivka.

Spotlight: North Korean troops’ deployment to Russia raises questions about conflict internationalization

Last week, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service reported that nearly 1,500 North Korean soldiers were training in Russia’s Vladivostok region.¹ Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov claimed that nearly 11,000 North Korean troops were already undergoing training in Russia for deployment in Ukraine and Russia’s Kursk region in November, while the Ukrainian state strategic communications center published video footage of Korean-speaking troops receiving Russian uniforms and gear.²; Center for Strategic Communications, ‘North Korean troops being outfitted in Russian gear (completed),’ 18 October 2024 These reports have raised concerns among Ukraine’s Western allies about the escalation of the war through the addition of a new belligerent and an influx of troops.³; Michelle Nichols, ‘US consults allies about North Korea troops in Ukraine’, Reuters, 22 October 2024 At the same time, these reports may have prompted South Korea to consider sending military observers to monitor North Korean presence.⁴

North Korea has already provided Russia with artillery shells and ballistic missiles,⁵; The Independent Anti-Corruption Commission, ‘Western Companies’ Recently Manufactured Components Found in a North Korean Missile Shot Down in Ukraine’, NAKO, 17 October 2024 with Russian warehouses holding North Korean munitions already being the target of Ukrainian strikes. A recent strike on a training site near Donetsk city killed several North Korean military observers. President Vladimir Putin recently asked the State Duma to ratify the Russia-North Korea security pact, which provides legal groundwork for cooperation and formalizes the existing agreements on military assistance.⁶

Explore the ACLED Conflict Exposure tool to assess the numbers of people affected by armed violence, disaggregated by locations, time period, and actors involved.