Ukraine war situation update | 13 – 19 June 2026

Spotlight: Ukraine escalates attacks on Moscow city and region amid ongoing Russian strikes on Ukraine’s population centers

Ukrainian forces intensified their attacks on Russia’s capital and the surrounding Moscow region by launching several waves of drone attacks throughout the week. In Moscow city, Ukrainian drones, as well as the Russian air defense system missiles that were activated to intercept these drones, struck the Moscow Oil Refinery on 15 and 18 June, engulfing the city in black smoke. The facility supplies over a third of the Moscow region’s fuel and fuel for Moscow’s airports. Ukrainian drones and drone debris also damaged residential buildings and a food production facility in the Moscow region located 600 meters away from a defense-affiliated enterprise. One civilian was killed, and at least 22 others were injured as a result of these attacks. Russian air defense systems were activated every day of the week to intercept Ukrainian drones in the region. They intercepted hundreds of drones in total.

Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s capital and Moscow region began escalating shortly after the Victory Day ceasefire in May. While single-digit Ukrainian drones were often intercepted in the Moscow region previously, with some of the drone debris occasionally causing damage or casualties, few strikes were big enough to hit targets or cause disruptions. ACLED records an average of four drone strikes on Moscow city and region per month in 2025, mostly causing minor and contained damage, in contrast to nearly 40 events between 1 May and 19 June. Overall, most of Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russia this year have been concentrated on energy sector facilities and military sites. Ambitious attacks on these targets are likely to continue to escalate, reaching targets further from the front line and hitting Moscow city and region, as Ukraine increases drone production and overwhelms Russia’s air defense.

Meanwhile, despite threatening escalation in response to Ukraine’s strikes on Moscow, Russia will struggle to further increase pressure on Ukraine, as it has been continuously pummeling Ukrainian cities to date, regardless of Ukraine’s attacks. Russia conducted a monthly average of nearly 35 strikes on Kyiv city and region from January 2025 to mid-June 2026 — a trend that follows Russia’s campaign of predominantly targeting population centers with long-range attacks. On 15 June, Russian drones and missiles struck residential areas, an educational institution, and the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra historic monastery in Kyiv city, killing five civilians and wounding nearly 50 others. On the same day and later in the week, Russian drones and missiles also struck several settlements in the eponymous region, causing further damage to civilian infrastructure.