Ukraine Conflict Monitor
Update
Ukraine war situation update | 13 December 2025 – 2 January 2026
Overview of political violence events in Ukraine from 13 December 2025 to 2 January 2026
Key stats
4,466 political violence events
2% decrease compared to the previous three weeks
278 incidents of violence targeting civilians
19% decrease compared to the previous three weeks
At least 135 fatalities from civilian targeting
7% decrease compared to the previous three weeks
Key events
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19 Dec.
Odesa — A Russian ballistic missile strike on Pivdennyi port kills eight civilians and wounds 30 others
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21 Dec.
Donetsk — Two Russian soldiers shoot dead six civilians sheltering in a basement in Pokrovsk
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1 Jan.
Kherson — A Ukrainian drone strike reportedly kills 29 civilians at a cafe in Khorly
Key trends
- Russian forces captured a total of 18 settlements: 10 in the Donetsk region, mostly east of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk; three in the Kharkiv region; two in the Dnipropetrovsk region; and one each in the Zaporizhia and Sumy regions.
- Russian forces launched at least 127 long-range missile and drone attacks, mostly affecting the Odesa, Zaporizhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, as well as Kyiv city and the surrounding region.
- Russian strikes killed at least 71 civilians in the Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Odesa, Sumy, Zaporizhia, and Zhytomyr regions, as well as Kyiv city and region.
- Ukrainian drones and shelling reportedly killed 44 civilians in the Russian-occupied parts of the Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia regions.
Spotlight: Ukraine rallies European support as US resumes pushing for a quick settlement
The end of 2025 saw a flurry of diplomatic activity in response to the United States’ renewed interest in securing an end to the nearly four-year-old war in Ukraine. Negotiations followed a pattern previously seen in March–April and August: The US initially pressured Ukraine to accept Russian terms that boil down to Ukraine withdrawing from about a quarter of the Donetsk region it still holds and accepting limited sovereignty in exchange for freezing the frontline elsewhere. After the initial US plan was leaked in November,1 Ukraine rallied European support2 and negotiated with the US an alternative blueprint at the end of December.3 Follow-up talks in early January among the US and countries from the Coalition of the Willing — a 35-member alliance of mostly European countries, Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and Turkey — produced a European commitment to provide Ukraine with security guarantees and deploy British and French troops to western Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire to deter another Russian attack.4
Russia has consistently ruled out foreign troop deployments to Ukraine and has been paying lip service to talks throughout 2025, seeking to avoid further sanctions and split Ukraine’s allies while ramping up violence both along the frontlines and further inland in Ukraine. Even before the publication of the proposed European post-war posture in Ukraine, Moscow rejected any changes to the initial peace plan and broadcast willingness to fight on.5
For more, see the ACLED 2026 Conflict Watchlist report, Exhausted Ukraine faces military and diplomatic pressure to cede the Donbas.
Explore the ACLED Conflict Exposure Calculator to assess the number of people affected by armed violence, disaggregated by locations, time period, and actors involved.
Footnotes
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- 2
European Council, “Leaders’ statement on Ukraine,” 15 December 2025
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- 4
European Commission, “Robust Security Guarantees for a Solid and Lasting Peace in Ukraine - Statement of the Coalition of the Willing,” 6 January 2026; Prime Minister’s Office, “Declaration of intent between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, The French Republic and Ukraine relating to the deployment of multinational forces in support of the defence, reconstruction and strategic sustainability of Ukraine,” 7 January 2026
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