Ukraine Conflict Monitor
Update
Ukraine war situation update | 16 – 22 May 2026
Ukraine’s offensive reach deep inside Russia only seems to be increasing in 2026
Key stats
1,804 political violence events
20% increasecompared to last week
178 incidents of violence targeting civilians
30% increase compared to last week
At least 53 civilians killed by targeted violence
15% decrease compared to last week
Key events
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18 May
Belarus — Russia and Belarus conduct joint nuclear weapon exercises focused on munitions delivery in Minsk
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18 May
Black Sea — Russian drones strike two foreign civilian ships en route to Odesa port
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20 May
Donetsk — Ukrainian forces strike a Russian drone pilot training center in Snizhne, killing 65 servicemen
Key trends
- Russian forces advanced in the Kharkiv region along the Belgorod border and claimed to have captured the settlements of Volokhivka and Shesterivka.
- Ukrainian forces recaptured the settlement of Stepnohirsk in the Zaporizhia region, preventing Russian forces from advancing further toward Orikhiv.
- Russian forces launched at least 62 long-range missile and drone attacks, including strikes on the Kyiv and Zhytomyr regions in northwestern Ukraine, as well as port infrastructure in the Odesa region.
- Russian strikes killed at least 45 civilians in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Kherson, Chirnihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhia regions. Ukrainian strikes reportedly killed eight civilians in the Russian-controlled parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson regions.
Spotlight: Another week of intense long-range Ukrainian attacks on Russia points to the deterioration of Russia’s air defense
Ukrainian forces launched another major drone attack on Moscow during the night of 16-17 May, sending more than 120 drones to the Russian capital. This formed part of a wider attack on 14 Russian regions with nearly 600 long-range drones.1 Moscow has one of the densest air defense systems in the world, but the strike on the city reportedly penetrated two layers of Moscow’s air defense layers2 and reached microelectronics factories, an oil loading station, and the Moscow oil refinery.3 During the entire week, ACLED records 296 air- and drone strikes and missile attacks carried out by Ukrainian forces in Russia.
As these strikes continue reaching targets deep inside Russia’s territory, it has become increasingly evident that it is difficult for Russia to defend against them. The Alpha Unit of Ukraine’s Security Service has been responsible for these effective, systematic attacks on Russia’s air defense systems, including on Pantsir systems — Russia’s main short-range system used to defend against drones.
One of Russia’s main aims at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022 was the demilitarization of Ukraine, including a proposed cap of 40 kilometers on the range capacity of Ukrainian missiles. However, more than four years later, Ukrainian forces strike targets of more than 1,000 kilometers deep inside Russia’s territory most weeks using Ukraine’s homemade Flamingo cruise missile, drones, and other weapons. Ukraine also has several new ballistic missile programs in development. Russia still has a huge defense capacity, but Ukraine’s offensive reach is only expanding in 2026.
