Ukraine war situation update | 17 – 23 January 2026

Spotlight: Ukraine and Russia hold US-mediated talks amid stalling Russian advances and freezing temperatures

On 24 January, delegates from Ukraine and Russia concluded a new round of peace talks mediated by United States Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in the United Arab Emirates. The negotiations took place amid a destructive Russian campaign of targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and stalling Russian advances along the frontline.

Foreshadowed by a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Davos, the talks in Abu Dhabi brought high-profile Ukrainian and Russian officials into the same negotiating room to exchange demands and parameters to end the conflict for the first time since the May-June 2025 talks. Even though the round of talks failed to create a path toward a ceasefire on attacks on energy infrastructure or the possibility of renewed operations at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, US and UAE officials have pointed to the discussions as positive signs of growing pragmatism.¹ Russian officials, however, continued to make their maximalist territorial demands on the Donbas after the meeting, despite Kyiv’s refusal to cede territories in parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions still under its control.

ACLED records that the number of settlements seized in January by Russian forces in Ukraine more than halved compared to the same period the month prior, as severe winter conditions and a slowdown in troop recruitment and replenishment, which is common during winter holidays,² prevented significant Russian advances. Ukrainian pushbacks, including an ongoing operation to liberate Kupiansk,³ continue to be limited by Kyiv’s own mobilization issues and low morale and readiness among troops, despite efforts spearheaded by the new Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who was appointed to address organizational and technological issues in the Ukrainian army.

Despite limited advances along the frontline, Russia is likely to remain constrained only by its troop replenishment capacity and diminishing oil revenues in its campaign to wage war in Ukraine in 2026. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government will also face increasing outside pressure to cede territories in the Donbas in exchange for unspecified security guarantees, chiefly from the US.⁴

Explore the ACLED Conflict Exposure Calculator to assess the number of people affected by armed violence, disaggregated by locations, time period, and actors involved.