Ukraine war situation update | 25 – 31 July 2026

Key trends

• In July, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) launched a middle-strike drone campaign on energy infrastructure in the occupied territories, and particularly in Crimea. Over 170 energy infrastructure sites were struck, leading to water shortages in the occupied territories and a sharp decrease in both electricity consumption and production in the Crimean peninsula in July. The SBS’ Operation Crimean Switch Off — alongside the Ukrainian Security Service’s (SBU) campaign targeting military logistics on and around the R-280 road — aims to undermine the economic basis of the Russian occupation in Crimea and southern occupied territories. These continuous strikes are worsening living conditions for the Ukrainian civilians remaining in these territories, prompting Kyiv to issue instructions on how to deal with potential power outages, food shortages, and military actions. As Russia has shown little ability to contain the strikes, the SBS can be expected to continue the campaign well into August.
• In Russia, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) suspended its supplies of Kazakh oil for the third time in a month, after Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked two oil tankers near its mooring facilities used for loading. Although Chevron reported resuming oil flows and tanker loading through the CPC on 31 July, anxieties remain about Kazakhstan’s main route for 80-90% of its oil exports, and Chevron has resumed diplomatic efforts in Washington to persuade Kyiv to stop its CPC targeting. Meanwhile, the Kazakh president publicly asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to freeze the war, and the Astana government denounced the strikes without naming Kyiv. Kazakhstan also told the International Maritime Organization that it may seek compensation for damages inflicted by the strikes. Meanwhile, the United States recently issued another objection to the Ukrainian strikes on the CPC. Other staunch Ukraine allies may follow suit, albeit likely behind closed doors, as they suffer from high oil prices amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, the strikes on a terminal that provides 1-2% of global oil supplies are likely to continue in August.