Ukraine Conflict Monitor
Update
Ukraine war situation update | 25 April – 1 May 2026
Ukraine strikes Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery and terminal as it increases its targeting of Russia’s oil infrastructure
Key stats
1,750 political violence events
7% increase compared to last week
139 incidents of violence targeting civilians
No change compared to last week
At least 46 civilians killed by targeted violence
2% increase compared to last week
Key events
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25 Apr.
Dnipropetrovsk — Russian drones and missiles strike Dnipro, killing eight civilians and injuring over 50
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27 Apr.
Black Sea — Russian drones hit a Nauru-flagged vessel heading to Odesa port
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30 Apr.
Odesa — Russian drones strike Odesa city, injuring 24 civilians
Key trends
- Russian forces occupied a settlement east of Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region and four villages near the international border in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces also advanced near Kupiansk and Borova in the Kharkiv region.
- Ukrainian forces made advances near Orikhiv and Malokaterynivka in the Zaporizhia region.
- Russian forces launched at least 50 long-range missile and drone attacks, including on Kyiv city and the western regions of Rivne and Ternopil.
- Russian strikes killed at least 36 civilians in the Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy, Kherson, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Zaporizhia regions. Ukrainian strikes reportedly killed eight civilians in the Russian-controlled parts of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Crimea regions.
Spotlight: Ukraine increases targeting of Russian oil infrastructure to offset revenue benefits from the Iran war
On 28 and 30 April, Ukrainian drones struck the Russian oil refinery and terminal in Tuapse in the Krasnodar region, causing fires, severe environmental contamination,1 and evacuations. The Tuapse oil refinery and the nearby port were also previously struck on 16 and 20 April. The refinery and the oil terminal are a primary hub for Russian oil export infrastructure and have been frequent targets of Ukrainian attacks due to their being a pillar of the Russian war economy. Throughout the week, Ukraine struck oil refineries in four Russian regions, in addition to hitting an oil depot in occupied Crimea and a sanctioned Cameroon-flagged tanker in the Black Sea.
The number of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure doubled in April, compared to the monthly average during the previous three months. These attacks have likely been carried out with the aim of offsetting the revenue boost for Russian oil caused by the war in Iran.2 Since the war started at the end of February, Russia’s oil revenue surged, as oil shortages caused a spike in energy prices, and the United States made a decision to ease the sanctions on Russia between 20 March and 19 April.3 Yet, Ukrainian strikes may make a significant dent in Russia’s earnings. According to analysts, the initial increase of Ukrainian strikes on Russian Baltic ports in late March alone erased two-thirds of Russia’s weekly oil revenue.4 Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil infrastructure are likely to continue regardless of further developments in the Strait of Hormuz, as they deepen Russia’s budget deficit and may affect military spending decisions. After all, ACLED records a similar number of attacks prior to the war in Iran in November and December last year. However, the escalation is set to resume if Russia continues to benefit from the closure of the strait and if the proposed May ceasefires fall through.
Overall, Ukrainian attacks in Russia and Russia-occupied regions have been on the rise since February. Strikes on occupied Crimea in particular more than quadrupled in April compared to the monthly average in 2025. Beyond oil infrastructure, Ukraine targeted Russian plants and military airfields with long-range strikes in several regions of Russia, as well as various military equipment, navy ships, and military training facilities in Crimea.
