Ukraine Conflict Monitor
Update
Ukraine war situation update | 27 June – 3 July 2026
Russia resumes its air campaign against Ukraine with a mass strike on Kyiv.
Key stats
2,012 political violence events
6% increase compared to last week
234 incidents of violence targeting civilians
24% increase compared to last week
At least 118 civilians killed by targeted violence
18% increase compared to last week
Key events
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29 Jun.
Dnipropetrovsk — A Russian missile strike kills seven civilians and injures 28 others in Dnipro city
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1 Jul.
Kherson — Russian drone strikes kill three civilians and wound 31 others in Kherson city
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3 Jul.
Sumy — Russian aerial bombs kill five civilians and injure 49 others in Sumy city
Key trends
- Russian forces continued their advances in the Kharkiv region, claiming two settlements near Vovchansk and Kupiansk. In the Donetsk region, they advanced west of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, occupying two villages. Despite local Ukrainian counteroffensives at the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhia administrative line, Russia’s infiltration and flag-planting operations allowed it to claim advances and occupy a village northwest of Huliaipole.
- Russian forces launched at least 65 long-range missile and drone attacks, including on Kyiv city and the surrounding region, but mostly on the Chernihiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
- Russian strikes reportedly killed at least 96 civilians in the city of Kyiv and across the Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions. Ukrainian strikes reportedly killed at least 20 civilians in the Russian-occupied parts of the Zaporizhia, Donetsk, Kherson, and Luhansk regions.
Spotlight: Russia resumes its air campaign on Kyiv to bend Ukraine’s will to fight
A combined attack of Russian drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles launched during the night of 1 and 2 July at the city of Kyiv and its suburbs killed at least 31 civilians and injured over 100 others. The strikes also damaged over 100 residential buildings, as well as educational institutions, a Red Cross warehouse, and oil and energy infrastructure. Russia followed these attacks with a similar mass round of strikes on Kyiv and the Kyiv region on 6 July. Preliminary data point to at least 26 fatalities and tens of injured civilians. The strikes mark a new high of civilian targeting in population centers. ACLED records the third-highest fatality count in Kyiv following the 1 and 2 July overnight strikes since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, on par with the strikes it carried out on 31 July 2025.
During the week, Russian forces also struck the regional capitals of Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Odesa, and Mykolaiv, killing at least 34 civilians and injuring over 250 others. They also targeted civilian infrastructure, including apartment buildings and gas stations. The urban centers in front line regions are particularly vulnerable to Russian strikes due to their proximity to Russian launchpads and importance in military logistics and humanitarian service provision. While these strikes highlight Ukraine’s critically low air defense missile stock, they also suggest Moscow’s intent to intensify targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure behind the front lines, at the cost of breaking civilian casualty records. This intent relies on Vladimir Putin’s presumed theory that continuing deep strikes into Ukraine and their disastrous consequences will be sufficient to break the will of Ukrainian society to fight back. However, this has resulted in little change despite the Ukrainians’ openness to negotiations to end the war.
