Ukraine Conflict Monitor
Update
Ukraine war situation update: 27 September – 3 October 2025
Overview of political violence and conflict events in Ukraine from 27 September to 3 October 2025
Key stats
1,437 political violence events
6% decrease compared to last week
110 incidents of violence targeting civilians
4% decrease compared to last week
At least 37 fatalities from civilian targeting
33% decrease compared to last week
Key events
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28 Sep.
Kyiv — Russian missiles and drones hit residential areas and a hospital in Kyiv city, killing four civilians
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29 Sep.
Sumy — A Russian drone kills a family of four, including a pregnant woman, in Chernechchyna
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30 Sep.
Dnipropetrovsk — Russian daytime drone strikes kill one civilian and injure 31 others in Dnipro city
Key trends
- Russian forces occupied Verbove in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
- Battles intensified north of Polohy in the Zaporizhia region.
- Russian forces launched at least 42 long-range missile and drone strikes, mostly affecting Kyiv city and region, as well as Dnipropetrovsk region.
- Russian strikes killed at least 32 civilians in the Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Sumy regions, as well as the city of Kyiv. Ukrainian strikes reportedly killed four civilians in the Russia-occupied parts of the Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia regions.
Spotlight: Russia’s targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure intensifies
On 3 October, Russia conducted combined missile and drone strikes against Ukraine’s natural gas production sites in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions. In the latter region, Russian forces also conducted a double-tap missile strike on rescuers, destroying their vehicle. The extent of damage is unclear, but Naftogaz, a state oil and gas company, claimed the strikes were the worst to date. DTEK, a private energy operator, suspended output at its facilities in the Poltava region.1 The strikes intensified into the weekend, when Russia launched over 20 cruise missiles and 140 drones targeting the Lviv region alone.2 Natural gas storage and transmission facilities are located in the region, though no details of damage have transpired. Russia previously targeted natural gas facilities in the Lviv, Kharkiv, and Poltava regions in early 2025. The strikes come amid preparations for the cold season and on the back of a general increase in the targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure by Russia in September. ACLED records at least 90 events in September, around a third more than the previous three months' average.
In addition to inducing blackouts on civilian populations, these strikes have further threatened Ukraine’s nuclear safety. On 1 October, a Russian drone strike on energy infrastructure in the Kyiv region cut the power supply to the defunct Chornobyl nuclear power plant for several hours. The Russia-occupied Zaporizhia nuclear power plant has been offline since 23 September3 after a probable drone strike cut the sole remaining power line to Ukrainian-held territory. This came amid speculation about Russian plans to connect the plant to its power grid and resume output there despite the plant being located on the line of contact.4 Russia’s President Vladimir Putin blamed Ukraine for the crisis and issued a veiled threat of targeting the three operational nuclear power plants under Ukraine’s control.5
Explore the ACLED Conflict Exposure Calculator to assess the numbers of people affected by armed violence, disaggregated by locations, time period, and actors involved.
