Ukraine war situation update 3 – 9 May 2025

Key trends

• In the Donetsk region, Russian forces advanced south and southwest of Kostiantynivka, southwest of Pokrovsk, and north and northeast of Lyman, in addition to occupying a village west of Velyka Novosilka. 
• Russian forces made gains in the area of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region and claimed to have advanced near the international border northeast of Sumy city.
• ACLED records at least 30 Russian long-range missile and drone strikes, including in Kyiv city and the Kyiv region, as well as the central regions of Cherkasy, Poltava, and Kirovohrad. 
• Russian shelling, missiles, aerial bombs, and drones killed at least 32 civilians in the Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odesa, Sumy, and Zaporizhia regions and in Kyiv city. Ukrainian shelling reportedly killed one civilian in the Russian-occupied part of the Kherson region. 

Spotlight: Moscow faces Ukrainian drones and ceasefire counter-proposals

Ukrainian drone barrages disrupted air traffic in and around Moscow ahead of 9 May commemorations of the 80th anniversary of Soviet and Allies’ victory in World War II, which included a military parade on the Red Square. Hundreds of Ukrainian drones attempted to break through Russia’s air defences in the European part of the country between 6 and 8 May, with Moscow appearing to be the primary target. Russian forces largely fended off strike attempts, claiming to have intercepted over 500 drones in the 24 hours between 6 and 7 May alone.¹ ACLED data show drone intercepts over at least 20 regions on 6 and 7 May, compared with a weekly  average of 13 regions since the beginning of the year. 

Five strike attempts were reported over Moscow and the surrounding eponymous region, including a direct hit on a military airfield and another event in which a residential building was damaged by falling debris. Additionally, a Russian air defense missile involved in an interception damaged a residential building in a Moscow suburb. The strike attempts led to the closures of airports across Russia, including all around Moscow, delaying the arrival of foreign leaders attending the 9 May parade.² To complicate the navigation of drones ahead of and on 9 May, Russian authorities resorted to the near-complete shutdown of cellular networks in Moscow and elsewhere in the country.³ 

Earlier, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin announced a second unilateral ceasefire between 8 and 11 May, likely aiming to force Ukraine to mirror the move to improve the odds of the parade passing without incident. Unlike in the case of the Easter ceasefire, Ukraine refused to reciprocate and demanded a month-long truce.⁴ In response, Putin proposed unconditional talks on 15 May in Turkey. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed and challenged Putin to a personal meeting.⁵ 

Explore the ACLED Conflict Exposure tool to assess the numbers of people affected by armed violence, disaggregated by locations, time period, and actors involved.