Ukraine Conflict Monitor
Update
Ukraine War Situation Update: 30 November – 6 December 2024
Overview of Ukraine war situation with key events and security updates.
| 870 political violence events | 49 incidents of violence targeted at civilians | At least 38 fatalities from civilian targeting |
| 14% decrease compared to last week | 6% decrease compared to last week | 58% increase compared to last week |
Key events
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30 Nov.
Dnipropetrovsk – A Russian missile hits an apartment building in Tsarychanka, killing five civilians and wounding over 20 others
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6 Dec.
Zaporizhia – Russian aerial bombs kill 10 civilians and wound 27 others in Zaporizhia city
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6 Dec.
Crimea – Ukrainian naval drones carrying small arms attack a shipbuilding yard near Kerch
Key trends
- In the Donetsk region, Russian forces occupied six settlements in the Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka areas. Meanwhile, counterattacking Ukrainian forces recaptured a village north of Velyka Novosilka.
- In the Kharkiv region, Russian forces continued to advance along the boundary with the Luhansk region in the area of Kupiansk.
- ACLED records 16 Russian long-range missile and drone strikes, including in the western regions of Rivne and Ternopil and the Kyiv region. Ukrainian forces also intercepted strikes in at least 35 further instances.
- Russian shelling, missiles, and drones killed at least 36 civilians across Ukraine, most of them in the Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
Spotlight: Russia tightens security cooperation with Belarus
On 6 December, the presidents of Russia and Belarus, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, signed an agreement on mutual security guarantees. It states that both countries have the right to use “all available forces and means,” including nuclear weapons, to guarantee each others’ independence and territorial integrity.1 The agreement resembles the Russian-North Korean mutual defense pact signed in June, which provided the groundwork for the deployment of at least 10,000 North Korean troops to Russia’s Kursk region in October. The presidents also discussed the transfer of the new “Oreshnik” intermediate range ballistic missile system to Belarus in the second half of 2025. The missiles were first used in the 21 November Russian attack on the Dnipro city in Ukraine.2
Meanwhile, over 80 Russian Shahed-series attack drones strayed into the Belarusian airspace from Ukraine and Russia last week, with most subsequently returning to Ukraine. The overflights triggered no response from the Belarusian air defence, though a fighter jet was scrambled on 5 December.3 ACLED has recorded reports of Russian drones entering Belarus since the end of July. A local monitoring group noted that the number of drones crossing into Belarus increased in the past two weeks.4 Belarus allowed Russia to use its territory as a launchpad for the initial invasion of northern Ukraine in February-March 2022 but has appeared reluctant to invite Ukrainian retaliation by becoming involved in Russia’s aggression beyond ceding military equipment.5
Explore the ACLED Conflict Exposure tool to assess the numbers of people affected by armed violence, disaggregated by locations, time period, and actors involved.
