Ukraine Conflict Monitor
Update
Ukraine war situation update | 31 January – 6 February 2026
A failed ceasefire of Russian strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure follows the poor performance of previous ceasefires.
Key stats
1,649 political violence events
3% increase compared to the previous three weeks
121 incidents of violence targeting civilians
7% increase compared to the previous three weeks
At least 61 fatalities from civilian targeting
11% increase compared to the previous three weeks
Key events
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1 Feb.
Dnipropetrovsk — Russian drone strikes kill 12 miners on a bus in Ternivka
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4 Feb.
Donetsk — Russian cluster munitions kill seven civilians and injure 17 others in Druzhkivka
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6 Feb.
Moscow — A suspected SBU-recruited Ukrainian shoots and critically injures a GRU lieutenant general
Key trends
- Russian forces captured three settlements along the border with Ukraine, two in the Kharkiv region and another in the Sumy region.
- Russian forces also claimed to have seized a settlement west of Huliaipole in the Zaporizhia region, and another village south of Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region.
- Russian forces launched at least 32 long-range missile and drone attacks, mostly concentrated on the Dnipropetrovsk region and the Kyiv region and city.
- Russian strikes killed at least 48 civilians in the Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, and Sumy regions. Ukrainian drones and shelling reportedly killed 12 civilians in the Russian-controlled parts of the Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhia, Luhansk, and Kharkiv regions.
Spotlight: Russia sticks to energy ceasefire for nearly three days, then resumes massive strikes in Ukraine
After the United States-mediated ceasefire on strikes targeting energy infrastructure raised expectations that pressure would be eased on freezing civilians in all of Ukraine and in Russia’s border regions, Russia resumed massive strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure after a lull between 30 January and 1 February.
Following a request extended by US President Donald Trump to Russian President Vladimir Putin, ACLED data shows that Russian forces paused their targeted drone and missile strikes at Ukraine’s power plants, substations, thermal power plants, and other gas infrastructure over the given weekend. Conforming to the agreed ceasefire, Ukraine acknowledged the importance of such a measure in building trust in the peace negotiations, while reporting Russian strikes on energy and railway infrastructure in the frontline regions,1 which have commonly been targeted to disrupt army logistics.
On 1 February, however, two Russian Shahed-type drones hit a bus carrying coal miners leaving their shift in Ternivka, killing at least 12 miners and injuring several others. This marked a return to Russia’s deliberate targeting of non-combatants and, with it, Ukraine’s energy sector. The massive Russian drone and missile strikes on Kyiv on 2 and 3 February caused more damage to infrastructure by destroying the Darnytska thermal-electrical power plant. The plant provides heating for over 1,100 apartment buildings in the Ukrainian capital and is unlikely to be repaired within the next two months,2 when the heating season is likely to end. Consequent Russian strikes affected power plants and energy transmission in the cities of Dnipro, Kharkiv, Odesa, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, as well as in the Vinnytsia region. Seemingly in response, Ukrainian forces struck substations in Belgorod and its surroundings, as well as in the Bryansk region, triggering blackouts and disrupting utilities.
The ceasefire has done little to shift Russian tactics and follows the poor performance of previous ceasefires between Russia and Ukraine on the battlefield and energy infrastructure. Despite this and the seemingly irreconcilable negotiating positions of Ukraine and Russia, the US continues to push for a peace deal by the summer of 2026.3
Explore the ACLED Conflict Exposure Calculator to assess the number of people affected by armed violence, disaggregated by locations, time period, and actors involved.
