Ukraine war situation update | 8 – 14 August 2026

Key trends

• Russia dismissed Ukraine’s proposal for a ceasefire on military operations in the Black Sea last week. While many shipowners had stopped using Ukraine’s Black Sea ports due to nearly daily Russian strikes on ports and vessels, Russia had continued operating its Black Sea grain terminals. It stopped doing so when Ukrainian forces launched a complex aerial attack and naval drones hit warships and the Russian port city of Novorossiysk on 10 August, which forced the closure of the city’s major grain terminal. Given Russia’s ceasefire refusal, the current barrage of Black Sea targets by both sides is likely to continue. This will continue to prevent the resumption of grain and other food exports through the Black Sea, exacerbating the already severe global food price crisis.
• According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine has cleared 745 square kilometers and around 26 settlements of Russian troops at the intersection of the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhia regions since January 2026. While this is a morale boost, the counteroffensive is unlikely to ease the pressure on the fortress belt of Donbas, where Russian advances, particularly on the Kostiantynivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration, are slowly mounting.