Ukraine Conflict Monitor
Update
Ukraine war situation update | 9 May – 15 May 2026
Russia’s Victory Day ceasefire again functioned as a tactical pause rather than an actual de-escalation measure
Key stats
1,496 political violence events
14% decrease compared to last week
128 incidents of violence targeting civilians
32% decrease compared to last week
At least 62 civilians killed by targeted violence
42% decrease compared to last week
Key events
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13 May
Krasnodar, Russia — A Ukrainian drone attack hits the Tamanneftegaz oil terminal in Volna
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14 May
Kyiv — A Russian strike on an apartment building in Kyiv’s Darnytskyi borough kills 24 civilians
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14 May
Ryazan, Russia — Debris from intercepted Ukrainian drone strikes on the Rosneft oil refinery kills four people
Key trends
- Russian forces advanced in the Kharkiv region. They claimed to have captured the settlements of Borova, Chaikivka, Kutkivka, and Petropavlivka, but independent sources dispute the capture of Petropavlivka. In the Donetsk region, Russian forces seized Mykolaivka following clashes with Ukrainian forces.
- Ukrainian forces recaptured the settlement of Odradne in the Kharkiv region, regaining 22 square kilometers in successful counterattacks that prevented Russia from establishing a foothold along the Kharkiv-Belgorod border.
- Russian forces launched at least 78 long-range missile and drone attacks, including strikes on the Kyiv and Lviv regions, as well as port infrastructure in the Odesa region.
- Russian strikes killed at least 56 civilians in the Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Rivne, and Kharkiv regions. Ukrainian strikes reportedly killed four civilians in the Russian-controlled parts of the Kherson and Donetsk regions.
Spotlight: Russia’s Victory Day ceasefire fails to hold as both sides continue long-range strikes
Russia’s Victory Day parade in Moscow on 9 May lasted only 45 minutes and didn’t feature any military hardware due to security concerns over Ukrainian drone strikes. Russian authorities imposed widespread mobile internet and SMS restrictions during the holiday period, with shutdowns affecting Moscow, St. Petersburg, and at least 38 other Russian regions between 5 and 9 May. They also blocked access to websites earlier approved by the government.1 The downsized parade followed a Ukrainian drone strike on a luxury 52-storey residential building, the Dom na Mosfilmovskoy, located approximately six kilometers from the Kremlin, on 4 May.2 Ukraine did not directly target the parade itself. Similar to how previous Russian ceasefire offers have functioned as tactical pauses rather than actual de-escalation measures, this year’s Victory Day truce appears to have served mainly as political theatre.
Shortly after the parade ended, Russian forces resumed with large drone and missile strikes during the week. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that a daytime attack on 13 May involved over 800 drones that reportedly killed at least 14 people across western Ukraine,3 followed by an overnight strike on 14 May that demolished an apartment building in Kyiv’s Darnytskyi district and killed at least 24 civilians according to ACLED’s dataset.4
Ukrainian forces also continued their long-range campaign against Russian oil and military infrastructure deep inside Russia, and hit three major Russian energy facilities — the Tamanneftegaz oil terminal, the Yaroslavl oil refinery, and the Astrakhan gas processing plant — overnight on 13 May.5 Overall, ACLED records a slight decrease of 14% in the total number of violent events in both Ukraine and Russia over the past week, compared to the previous week.
