YCO Situation Update: November 2023

Escalating Houthi maritime attacks unlikely to lead to wider regional destabilization

As missile and drone launches toward Israel have failed to reach their intended targets, the Houthis have expanded their military activities into the Red Sea, seizing an Israeli-linked cargo vessel and launching missiles and drones at commercial ships and United States Navy warships. The group has threatened to continue the attacks as long as the military campaign in Gaza is ongoing.¹ The risk to international shipping has drawn widespread international condemnation and warnings about potential retaliation.

Recent maritime attacks have garnered global attention, but they are not a new strategy for the Houthis. Since its expansion to the West Coast in 2015, the group has threatened international shipping lanes in the Red Sea, especially at the critical global chokepoint of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Remarkably, the increased frequency, selective targeting, and weapon systems used over the past weeks point to a significant escalation of Houthi tactics. This show of increased capacity means that the group now poses a greater threat to international shipping.

This report investigates recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea,² drawing comparisons with historical patterns of violence in the same region. It finds that, despite the heightened threat, the likelihood of a significant military or political response will likely remain low in the near future, due to international concerns about the risk of a wider regional destabilization and the impact on the Saudi-led peace process with the Houthis.

Houthi attacks move closer to home 

Long-range attacks on Israel continue

As the Houthis continued their attacks against Israel, they expanded their list of targets to include Israel-linked vessels and the US warships protecting them. Following the group’s three missile and drone launches toward Israel in October, Houthi forces conducted another 10 attacks this month. However, the targets and locations of the attacks shifted from southern Israel to closer to home. The Houthis still carried out long-range missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) launches at Israel, but they also shot at US military assets off the Yemeni coast, as well as at two Israel-linked commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

The Houthis’ longer-range attacks toward southern Israel continue to prove ineffective. In November, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claimed to have shot down another four missiles and a UAV the Houthis launched toward Israel, marking seven confirmed interceptions since 7 October. However, none of the projectiles have reached Israel’s airspace. This lack of success, coupled with a broader escalation by the groups in the Iran-led ‘axis of resistance’³ as they pressure Israel to end its military campaign in Gaza, led the Houthis to pivot to more attainable targets in the Red Sea.

Houthis re-open the maritime theater

Starting on 8 November with the shooting down of a US MQ-9 Reaper drone off the western coast, Houthi forces have launched numerous missiles and drones that have come into the proximity of US Navy vessels. Although the group has not claimed any of these attacks, and US officials have been cautious in their comments about whether their naval destroyers were the intended targets, there were three instances of American vessels shooting down Houthi-launched UAVs in their vicinity in November. A Houthi missile also crashed near the USS Mason.

The Houthis have previously denied responsibility for a series of...</p>

The maritime operations also expanded to include commercial vessels with perceived links to Israel...

Israeli officials have largely distanced themselves from Houthi activities...

Round-Up

Houthis carry out more attacks toward Israel

Israel shot down five Houthi-launched drones and missiles in November, bringing its total number of intercepts to seven since 7 October. The IDF confirmed that its Arrow air defense system intercepted surface-to-surface missiles launched from Yemen toward the southern Israeli port town of Eilat on 9 and 14 November before the projectiles could enter Israel’s airspace. After a one-week pause, an Israeli fighter jet shot down an incoming cruise missile on 22 November. The Houthi attacks continued on 25 November with the launch of two missiles and a UAV that Israel’s defenses interdicted over the Red Sea. Despite the missiles’ failure to reach their intended targets in Israel, Houthi officials repeated that the attacks would continue as long as military operations remained ongoing in Gaza.¹⁶