Webinar | Lebanon in crisis: Escalation dynamics and future scenarios

Over the past weeks, Lebanon has re-emerged as a central point in a widening regional confrontation between Iran, the United States, and Israel. Intensifying Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon —particularly along the Litani River—, alongside the targeting of civilian infrastructure in Beirut, spark fear of a broader escalation reminiscent of 1982's invasion. 

Watch the recorded webinar held on Tuesday, 31 March,  examining the consequences of the Iran–US–Israel escalation in Lebanon. This discussion explores how patterns of violence are evolving, how Hezbollah and other actors are positioning themselves, and what risks lie ahead for both Lebanon and the wider region.

Moderated by Nasser Khdour, Middle East Assistant Research Manager, the conversation features:

• Bassel Doueik, Lebanon and Jordan Researcher, ACLED
• Ahmad El Gharbieh, Associate Professor of Graphic Design at the American University of Beirut

The panel also examines how geography continues to shape military dynamics in Lebanon, as well as the evolving relationship between displaced populations and host communities, and the mounting political and economic pressures driven by the crisis. It explores potential escalation scenarios — ranging from contained cross-border violence to a broader regional war — and what these trajectories could mean for Lebanon’s stability.