Conflict Early Warning Report
July 2023

The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months. This report reflects the July 2023 update of global forecasts.

The CAST prediction of 103 organized political violence events for June in India was up from the yearly norm of around 80 events. Observed violence escalated beyond this predicted increase, totaling 166 events for the month, a level of activity not seen since late 2020.

The changing conflict landscape in India is largely due to worsening severity in Manipur, a state that normally hosts only a few events per month. Violence jumped to over 60 events per month in May and June, accounting for almost half of total violent activity in the country. Most of this violence stems from inter-ethnic clashes between Kuki-Zomi and Meitei groups, as well as between these groups' militias and Indian state forces.

CAST predictions for July total 156 events, 40 percent of which are in Manipur. CAST models attribute much of this prediction to the worsening severity of Military-Political Militia Interactions and Fatalities in recent months.

For more on conflict in India, see ACLED's Asia-Pacific Regional Hub.

There were 73 events of political violence in Pakistan for June, 14 events fewer than the CAST prediction. This is slightly below historical accuracy for the country, where monthly forecasts tend to fall within about 5% of observed violence. The most active subnational region - Khyber Pakhtunkhwa - totaled 39 events for the month, just missing the forecast by 4 events.

The proportion of each of the organized violence event types was relatively in line with expectations for June. There was a slightly larger share of battles than predicted, driven by interactions between Tehreek-i-Taliban (TTP) militants and Pakistani state forces in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Organized violence in Pakistan will likely stay consistent at around 80 events in total, according to CAST predictions. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is expected to account for about half of these events. The forecast for Balochistan, the second most active region in the country, adjusts downward slightly from recent predictions to 20 events, nearly 25% below its yearly norm.

For more on Pakistan, see ACLED's Asia-Pacific Regional Hub.

Organized political violence in Mali has been relatively steady around 120 events per month over the last 6 months. The CAST prediction for June did not expect much deviation from this trend, forecasting 122 events across the country. Observed activity in June exceeded forecasts by 7 events, driven by worsening violence in Segou.

JNIM: Group for Support of Islam and Muslims was at the center of violence, involved in 81 of the 129 events in June. Of the events involving JNIM, 57% were battles, mostly against the Malian state forces, while 30% were violence against civilians. Of the 48 events not involving JNIM, 83% were violence against civilians. The Wagner Group was involved in 5 events during the month, 2 of which were violence against civilians.

The recent variation in Rebel-Communal Militia Interactions drives the CAST prediction for July in Mali, with this variable entering as an important predictor in 70% of ADMIN1s in the country. At 124 events, the July forecast is consistent with the 3 month norm, with battles (45 events) and violence against civilians (62 events) as the dominant predicted event types.

For more on conflict in Mali, see ACLED's Africa Regional Hub.

While CAST predicted a 10% increase in organized violence in Honduras relative to the yearly norm, violence continued to climb in June. In total there were 73 organized violence events, exceeding the recent peak in May (65 events). Much of this increase in activity stems from spikes in gang violence, including an attack by members of the Barrio 18 gang (B-18) on 20 June in a women's prison in Támara, within the Francisco Morazan department. Violence against civilians also outpaced June forecasts in Cortés department (19 events), also driven by gang attacks.

The government has taken several securitization measures in response to the increasingly severe gang violence, including a 15 day special curfew in certain cities in Cortés department (see ACLED's June Regional Overview for more on the recent gang violence and the government's response). According to CAST predictions for July, total organized violence will likely reach 53 events, a forecast below levels of violence in May and June, yet still 20% above the yearly average.

For more on violence in Honduras, see ACLED's Latin America & the Caribbean Regional Hub.