The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts organized political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months.
This report reflects the April 2024 update of global forecasts.
April Global Forecast
Total Forecast: 12,218 events
Forecasted 10 Most Violent Countries
April Early Warning Watch List
Russia and Ukraine
Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine
Myanmar
Colombia
Ethiopia
March Global Performace
Global Accuracy, by Event Type
Global Accuracy
CAST predicted 11,949 organized political violence events for March. There were ultimately 886 more events than predicted, a 7% difference. This difference was driven primarily by an increase of 549 Explosions & Remote Violence events relative to the forecast.
High Activity Countries within 5% Accuracy
Accuracy Highlights
Of the countries and territories with at least 20 violent events in March, seven were within 5% of their forecast.
Explore the Accuracy Metrics tab of the CAST dashboard for performance information across the world.
Large Deviations from Forecasts
Significant Changes from Forecasts
CAST under-predicted total events in four of the five largest deviations from the March forecast (Iraq, Myanmar, Ukraine, Russia), while the remaining large deviation was an over-prediction in Lebanon.
Track evolving conflict dynamics in these countries and others around the world each week with ACLED’s Early Warning Dashboard.