The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts organized political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months.
This report reflects the August 2024 update of global forecasts.
August Global Forecast
Total Forecast: 12,846 events
Forecasted 10 Most Violent Countries
August Early Warning Watch List
Russia and Ukraine
Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine
Myanmar
Syria
Iraq
July Global Performace
Global Accuracy, by Event Type
Global Accuracy
CAST predicted 12,348 organized political violence events for July. There were ultimately 1,190 more events than predicted, a 10% difference. This difference was driven primarily by an increase of 587 Battles events relative to the forecast.
High Activity Countries within 5% Accuracy
Accuracy Highlights
Of the countries and territories with at least 20 violent events in July, four were within 5% of their forecast.
Explore the Accuracy Metrics tab of the CAST dashboard for performance information across the world.
Large Deviations from Forecasts
Significant Changes from Forecasts
CAST under-predicted total events in each of the five largest deviations from the July forecast (Iraq, Syria, Myanmar, Russia, Ukraine).
Track evolving conflict dynamics in these countries and others around the world each week with ACLED’s Trendfinder.