The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts organized political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months.
This report reflects the December 2023 update of global forecasts.
December Global Forecast
Total Forecast: 12,139 events
Forecasted 10 Most Violent Countries
December Early Warning Watch List
Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine
Myanmar
Nigeria
Colombia
November Global Performace
Global Accuracy, by Event Type
Global Accuracy
CAST predicted 12,096 organized political violence events for November. There were ultimately 128 more events than predicted, a 1% difference. This difference was driven primarily by a decrease of 182 Violence Against Civilians events relative to the forecast.
High Activity Countries within 5% Accuracy
Accuracy Highlights
Of the countries and territories with at least 20 violent events in November, five were within 5% of their forecast.
Explore the Accuracy Metrics tab of the CAST dashboard for performance information across the world.
Large Deviations from Forecasts
Significant Changes from Forecasts
CAST under-predicted total events in three of the five largest deviations from the November forecast (Myanmar, Lebanon, Palestine), while the remaining two largest deviations were from over-prediction (Israel, Ukraine)
Track evolving conflict dynamics in these countries and others around the world each week with ACLED’s Early Warning Dashboard.