The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts organized political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months.

This report reflects the February 2024 update of global forecasts.

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ACLED CAST

Early Warning and Forecasting Hub

Regional Overviews

February Global Forecast

Total Forecast: 11,787 events

Forecasted 10 Most Violent Countries

February Early Warning Watch List

The maps show CAST’s total organized violence prediction at the ADMIN1 level for February 2024. Hover to reveal forecasted event counts.

The charts depict the proportion of each event type of the total February 2024 forecast. Hover to see event totals within each event type.

The tables show the top 5 most active ADMIN1s within each country, with values denoting total organized violence.

Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine

Iran and Pakistan

Brazil

Sudan

January Global Performace

Global Accuracy, by Event Type

Global Accuracy

CAST predicted 12,364 organized political violence events for January. There were ultimately 397 more events than predicted, a 3% difference. This difference was driven primarily by an increase of 326 Explosions & Remote Violence events relative to the forecast.


High Activity Countries within 5% Accuracy

Accuracy Highlights

Of the countries and territories with at least 20 violent events in January, eight were within 5% of their forecast.

Explore the Accuracy Metrics tab of the CAST dashboard for performance information across the world.


Large Deviations from Forecasts

Significant Changes from Forecasts

CAST under-predicted total events in four of the five largest deviations from the January forecast (Democratic Republic of Congo, Brazil, Sudan, Iraq), while the remaining large deviation was an over-prediction in Myanmar.

Track evolving conflict dynamics in these countries and others around the world each week with ACLED’s Early Warning Dashboard.