The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts organized political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months.
This report reflects the February 2025 update of global forecasts.
February Global Forecast
Total Forecast: 13,688 events
Forecasted 10 Most Violent Countries
February Early Warning Watch List
Russia and Ukraine
Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine
Syria
Democratic Republic of Congo
Somalia
January Global Performace
Global Accuracy, by Event Type
Global Accuracy
CAST predicted 13,971 organized political violence events for January. There were ultimately 68 more events than predicted, a 0% difference. This difference was driven primarily by an increase of 263 Violence Against Civilians events relative to the forecast.
High Activity Countries within 5% Accuracy
Accuracy Highlights
Of the countries and territories with at least 20 violent events in January, three were within 5% of their forecast.
Explore the Accuracy Metrics tab of the CAST dashboard for performance information across the world.
Large Deviations from Forecasts
Significant Changes from Forecasts
CAST under-predicted total events in two of the five largest deviations from the January forecast (Russia, Ukraine), while the remaining three largest deviations were from over-prediction (Palestine, Iraq, Lebanon)
Track evolving conflict dynamics in these countries and others around the world each week with ACLED’s Trendfinder.