The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts organized political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months.
This report reflects the January 2024 update of global forecasts.
January Global Forecast
Total Forecast: 12,368 events
Forecasted 10 Most Violent Countries
January Early Warning Watch List
Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine
Yemen
Cameroon
Bangladesh
December Global Performace
Global Accuracy, by Event Type
Global Accuracy
CAST predicted 12,139 organized political violence events for December. There were ultimately 548 more events than predicted, a 5% difference. This difference was driven primarily by an increase of 807 Explosions & Remote Violence events relative to the forecast.
High Activity Countries within 5% Accuracy
Accuracy Highlights
Of the countries and territories with at least 20 violent events in December, twelve were within 5% of their forecast.
Explore the Accuracy Metrics tab of the CAST dashboard for performance information across the world.
Large Deviations from Forecasts
Significant Changes from Forecasts
CAST under-predicted total events in four of the five largest deviations from the December forecast (Iraq, Russia, Lebanon, Palestine), while the remaining large deviation was an over-prediction in Yemen.
Track evolving conflict dynamics in these countries and others around the world each week with ACLED’s Early Warning Dashboard.