The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts organized political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months.

This report reflects the January 2025 update of global forecasts.

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ACLED CAST

Data and Tools

Regional Overviews

January Global Forecast

Total Forecast: 13,971 events

Forecasted 10 Most Violent Countries

January Early Warning Watch List

The maps show CAST’s total organized violence prediction at the ADMIN1 level for January 2025. Hover to reveal forecasted event counts.

The charts depict the proportion of each event type of the total January 2025 forecast. Hover to see event totals within each event type.

The tables show the top 5 most active ADMIN1s within each country, with values denoting total organized violence.

Russia and Ukraine

Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine

Syria

Ethiopia

Colombia

December Global Performace

Global Accuracy, by Event Type

Global Accuracy

CAST predicted 16,227 organized political violence events for December. There were ultimately 2,677 fewer events than predicted, a 16% difference. This difference was driven primarily by a decrease of 3,078 Explosions & Remote Violence events relative to the forecast.


High Activity Countries within 5% Accuracy

Accuracy Highlights

Of the countries and territories with at least 20 violent events in December, eight were within 5% of their forecast.

Explore the Accuracy Metrics tab of the CAST dashboard for performance information across the world.


Large Deviations from Forecasts

Significant Changes from Forecasts

Track evolving conflict dynamics in these countries and others around the world each week with ACLED’s Trendfinder.