The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts organized political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months.
This report reflects the July 2024 update of global forecasts.
July Global Forecast
Total Forecast: 12,348 events
Forecasted 10 Most Violent Countries
July Early Warning Watch List
Russia and Ukraine
Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine
Brazil
India
Cameroon
June Global Performace
Global Accuracy, by Event Type
Global Accuracy
CAST predicted 12,784 organized political violence events for June. There were ultimately 595 fewer events than predicted, a 5% difference. This difference was driven primarily by a decrease of 439 Explosions & Remote Violence events relative to the forecast.
High Activity Countries within 5% Accuracy
Accuracy Highlights
Of the countries and territories with at least 20 violent events in June, five were within 5% of their forecast.
Explore the Accuracy Metrics tab of the CAST dashboard for performance information across the world.
Large Deviations from Forecasts
Significant Changes from Forecasts
CAST under-predicted total events in one of the five largest deviations from the June forecast (Russia), while the remaining four largest deviations were from over-prediction (Nigeria, Cameroon, Palestine, Ukraine)
Track evolving conflict dynamics in these countries and others around the world each week with ACLED’s Trendfinder.