The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts organized political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months.
This report reflects the March 2024 update of global forecasts.
March Global Forecast
Total Forecast: 11,949 events
Forecasted 10 Most Violent Countries
March Early Warning Watch List
Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine
Syria
Mali
Honduras
February Global Performace
Global Accuracy, by Event Type
Global Accuracy
CAST predicted 11,787 organized political violence events for February. There were ultimately 31 more events than predicted, a 0% difference. This difference was driven primarily by a decrease of 171 Battles events relative to the forecast.
High Activity Countries within 5% Accuracy
Accuracy Highlights
Of the countries and territories with at least 20 violent events in February, nine were within 5% of their forecast.
Explore the Accuracy Metrics tab of the CAST dashboard for performance information across the world.
Large Deviations from Forecasts
Significant Changes from Forecasts
CAST under-predicted total events in two of the five largest deviations from the February forecast (Lebanon, Palestine), while the remaining three largest deviations were from over-prediction (Iraq, Sudan, Syria)
Track evolving conflict dynamics in these countries and others around the world each week with ACLED’s Early Warning Dashboard.