The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts organized political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months.
This report reflects the May 2024 update of global forecasts.
May Global Forecast
Total Forecast: 12,189 events
Forecasted 10 Most Violent Countries
May Early Warning Watch List
Russia and Ukraine
Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine
Syria
Mexico
Sudan
April Global Performace
Global Accuracy, by Event Type
Global Accuracy
CAST predicted 12,218 organized political violence events for April. There were ultimately 273 fewer events than predicted, a 2% difference. This difference was driven primarily by an increase of 349 Battles events relative to the forecast.
High Activity Countries within 5% Accuracy
Accuracy Highlights
Of the countries and territories with at least 20 violent events in April, four were within 5% of their forecast.
Explore the Accuracy Metrics tab of the CAST dashboard for performance information across the world.
Large Deviations from Forecasts
Significant Changes from Forecasts
CAST under-predicted total events in two of the five largest deviations from the April forecast (Mexico, Sudan), while the remaining three largest deviations were from over-prediction (Russia, Syria, Palestine)
Track evolving conflict dynamics in these countries and others around the world each week with ACLED’s Trendfinder.