The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts organized political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months.
This report reflects the November 2024 update of global forecasts.
November Global Forecast
Total Forecast: 17,095 events
Forecasted 10 Most Violent Countries
November Early Warning Watch List
Russia and Ukraine
Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine
Syria
Sudan
Iran
October Global Performace
Global Accuracy, by Event Type
Global Accuracy
CAST predicted 15,302 organized political violence events for October. There were ultimately 2,497 more events than predicted, a 16% difference. This difference was driven primarily by an increase of 1,766 Explosions & Remote Violence events relative to the forecast.
High Activity Countries within 5% Accuracy
Accuracy Highlights
Of the countries and territories with at least 20 violent events in October, five were within 5% of their forecast.
Explore the Accuracy Metrics tab of the CAST dashboard for performance information across the world.
Large Deviations from Forecasts
Significant Changes from Forecasts
CAST under-predicted total events in each of the five largest deviations from the October forecast (Sudan, Syria, Russia, Ukraine, Lebanon).
Track evolving conflict dynamics in these countries and others around the world each week with ACLED’s Trendfinder.