The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts organized political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months.
This report reflects the November 2023 update of global forecasts.
November Global Forecast
Total Forecast: 12,290 events
Forecasted 10 Most Violent Countries
November Early Warning Watch List
Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine
Democratic Republic of Congo
Pakistan
Brazil
October Global Performace
Global Accuracy, by Event Type
Global Accuracy
CAST predicted 10,809 organized political violence events for October. There were ultimately 2,583 more events than predicted, a 24% difference. This difference was driven primarily by an increase of 1,983 Explosions & Remote Violence events relative to the forecast.
Much of the unexpected increase in violence followed the 7 October Hamas attack on southern Israel and Israel’s unprecedented aerial bombardment of Gaza in response. For more on the conflict, see ACLED’s Israel and Palestine Conflict Fact Sheet.
High Activity Countries within 3% Accuracy
Accuracy Highlights
Of the countries and territories with at least 20 violent events in October, four were within 3% of their forecast.
Explore the Accuracy Metrics tab of the CAST dashboard for performance information across the world.
Large Deviations from Forecasts
Significant Changes from Forecasts
CAST under-predicted total events in four of the five largest deviations from the October forecast (Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine), while the remaining large deviation was an over-prediction in Ukraine.
Track evolving conflict dynamics in these countries and others around the world each week with ACLED’s Early Warning Dashboard.