The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts organized political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months.
This report reflects the October 2023 update of global forecasts.
September Global Performace
Global Accuracy, by Event Type
Global Accuracy
CAST predicted 10,747 organized political violence events for September. There were ultimately 351 more events than predicted, a 3% difference. This difference was driven primarily by an increase of 406 Explosions & Remote Violence events relative to the forecast.
High Activity Countries within 3% Accuracy
Accuracy Highlights
Of the countries and territories with at least 20 violent events in September, six were within 3% of their forecast.
Explore the Accuracy Metrics tab of the CAST dashboard for performance information across the world.
Large Deviations from Forecasts
Significant Changes from Forecasts
CAST under-predicted total events in three of the five largest deviations from the September forecast (Azerbaijan, Russia, Syria), while the remaining two largest deviations were from over-prediction (Mexico, Ukraine).
Track evolving conflict dynamics in these countries and others around the world each week with ACLED’s Early Warning Dashboard.
October Global Forecast
Total Forecast: 10,818 events
Forecasted 10 Most Violent Countries
Israel and Palestine Conflict
Note: the adjusted forecasts include preliminary data not yet released by ACLED. These figures are subject to change as new information becomes available.