The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months. This report reflects the June 2023 update of global forecasts. References to May forecasts refer to those generated following the scheduled two-week data update hiatus.
The conflict between the SAF and RSF has significantly altered the breakdown of organized violence event types in Sudan. In the first three months of 2023, violence against civilians accounted for over 80% of organized violence events in Sudan, while battles totaled 18%. This trend inverted in April and May, with battles constituting 77% of organized violence events and violence against civilians constituting 19%.
According to CAST predictions, this pattern will likely continue into June, with battles making up 75% of the 266 predicted organized violence events. Along with Khartoum, four of the five states in the Darfur region are expected to sustain an increase in activity of over 25% relative to the 3 month norm. For more on the conflict, see ACLED's Sudan Country Hub.
Looking forward, CAST predictions suggest that organized violence in Somalia will again total nearly 200 events in June, about half of which will be battles. Lower Shabelle is predicted to register a total of 41 events, slightly below the May total but still a sizable increase from recent trends. Banadir is expected to be the second most active region in the country, with 38 events predicted for June, just above its May total of 35. For more on Somalia, see ACLED's Somalia Country Hub.
CAST predictions for June adjust slightly downward following fewer events than predicted in May, with an expected total of 631 organized violence incidents. Subnationally, Idleb (128 events) surpassed Aleppo (113 events) as the most active governorate for organized violence in May. For June, CAST predicts that Aleppo will revert to the most active governorate with a forecast of 130 events, followed by Idleb (118 events) and Deir ez Zor (97 events). For more on Syria, see ACLED's Middle East Regional Hub.
CAST predicts 220 events in Russia in June, 92% of which are explosions/remote violence. Over 80% of these incidents are expected to fall in Belgorod, where 181 explosions/remote violence are events are predicted for June. The predicted totals for Bryansk (14) and Kursk (22) remain elevated relative to the norm. For more on Russia and Ukraine, see ACLED's Europe & Central Asia Regional Hub and Ukraine Conflict Monitor.