Importing Instability: How the War Against Ukraine Makes Russia Less Secure
Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine since February 2022 is increasingly spilling back over into Russian territory, with cross-border shelling, armed incursions, and drone strike attempts on the rise amid intensifying internal strife.
ACLED’s Ukraine Conflict Monitor provides near real-time information on the war, including an interactive map of the latest data from the start of the invasion onward, a curated data file, and weekly situation updates.
The Monitor is designed to help researchers, policymakers, media, and the wider public track key conflict developments in Ukraine over the course of the war. It is updated every Wednesday, with data covering events from the previous week. ACLED data reflect the best available information at the time of release, and are regularly updated as new or better information becomes available.
Due to the methodological limitations of event-based data collection, in addition to the broader challenges around fatality reporting in fast-moving conflict contexts like Ukraine, fatality estimates in the ACLED dataset pertain specifically to those fatalities reported in connection with distinct events that meet ACLED’s catchment and minimum threshold for inclusion (i.e. date, location, and actor information). This means that aggregate tallies provided by sources such as hospitals and government agencies, for example, which cannot be broken down and connected to individual conflict incidents, are not included in the ACLED dataset. ACLED fatality numbers are conservative event-based estimates, and the full death toll in such contexts is likely higher than the number of reported fatalities currently attributed to the type of distinct incidents that can be captured in the dataset. For these reasons, the Monitor will not be providing regular fatality estimate updates at this time.1Tracking fatalities is one of the most difficult aspects of conflict data collection in general, as fatality counts are frequently the most biased, inconsistent, and poorly documented components of conflict reporting, and this is especially true of active conflict environments impacted by high levels of mis/disinformation and severe access constraints. ACLED defaults to conservative estimates based on the best available information at the time of coding in line with our specific event-based methodology and review process. ACLED estimates are restricted to fatalities reported during individual events, meaning that these estimates may be particularly conservative in comparison with sources that do not use an event-based methodology. When and where possible, ACLED researchers seek out information to triangulate the numbers from any report, but we do not independently verify fatalities. ACLED is also a ‘living dataset’, so all fatality figures are revised and corrected — upward or downward — if new or better information becomes available (which, in some conflict contexts, can be months or years after an event has taken place). These figures should therefore be understood as indicative estimates rather than definitive fatality counts (for more on ACLED’s approach to coding fatalities, see FAQs: ACLED Fatality Methodology). ACLED additionally only captures fatalities that are directly caused by political violence; indirect conflict-related fatalities caused by disease or starvation, for example, are not included in these estimates. Other sources may come to different figures due to differing methodologies and catchments.
Ukraine Conflict Update:
25 November – 1 December 2023
In the Donetsk region, Russian forces continued attempts to encircle Avdiivka and advanced near Bakhmut and east of Lyman, near the boundary with the Luhansk region. Russian forces also continued to advance towards Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. Fighting continued east of Oleshky in the Kherson region and along the frontline in the Zaporizhia region. Meanwhile, suspected partisan groups killed six Russian soldiers in Mariupol in the Donetsk region and clashed with Russian forces near Myrne in the Zaporizhia region.
Russian shelling, missiles, and airstrikes killed over 20 civilians in the Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Sumy, and Zaporizhia regions. On 30 November, a Russian missile struck a multi-story apartment building in Novohrodivka in the Donetsk region, killing four civilians and wounding five others. On 28 November, Russian shelling of Seredyna-Buda in the Sumy region killed three civilians and wounded three others. On 25 November, Holodomor Remembrance Day, Russian forces carried out their largest coordinated drone attack since the start of the war, launching around 75 drones in total. Ukraine claimed to have intercepted 74 drones, with more than 60 downed over Kyiv city and the surrounding region. The debris injured five civilians and damaged civilian infrastructure in Kyiv city.
For previous situation updates and infographics, click here.
This dashboard includes political violence events in Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion on 24 February 2022. By default, the map displays data for the most recent week. Use the filters on the left to analyze trends in more detail.