War in Ukraine: One Year On, Nowhere Safe
This report analyzes key trends in ACLED data since the start of the Russian invasion.
ACLED’s Ukraine Conflict Monitor provides near real-time information on the war, including an interactive map of the latest data from the start of the invasion onward, a curated data file, and weekly situation updates.
The Monitor is designed to help researchers, policymakers, media, and the wider public track key conflict developments in Ukraine over the course of the war. It is updated every Wednesday, with data covering events from the previous week. ACLED data reflect the best available information at the time of release, and are regularly updated as new or better information becomes available.
Due to the methodological limitations of event-based data collection, in addition to the broader challenges around fatality reporting in fast-moving conflict contexts like Ukraine, fatality estimates in the ACLED dataset pertain specifically to those fatalities reported in connection with distinct events that meet ACLED’s catchment and minimum threshold for inclusion (i.e. date, location, and actor information). This means that aggregate tallies provided by sources such as hospitals and government agencies, for example, which cannot be broken down and connected to individual conflict incidents, are not included in the ACLED dataset. ACLED fatality numbers are conservative event-based estimates, and the full death toll in such contexts is likely higher than the number of reported fatalities currently attributed to the type of distinct incidents that can be captured in the dataset. For these reasons, the Monitor will not be providing regular fatality estimate updates at this time.1Tracking fatalities is one of the most difficult aspects of conflict data collection in general, as fatality counts are frequently the most biased, inconsistent, and poorly documented components of conflict reporting, and this is especially true of active conflict environments impacted by high levels of mis/disinformation and severe access constraints. ACLED defaults to conservative estimates based on the best available information at the time of coding in line with our specific event-based methodology and review process. ACLED estimates are restricted to fatalities reported during individual events, meaning that these estimates may be particularly conservative in comparison with sources that do not use an event-based methodology. When and where possible, ACLED researchers seek out information to triangulate the numbers from any report, but we do not independently verify fatalities. ACLED is also a ‘living dataset’, so all fatality figures are revised and corrected — upward or downward — if new or better information becomes available (which, in some conflict contexts, can be months or years after an event has taken place). These figures should therefore be understood as indicative estimates rather than definitive fatality counts (for more on ACLED’s approach to coding fatalities, see FAQs: ACLED Fatality Methodology). ACLED additionally only captures fatalities that are directly caused by political violence; indirect conflict-related fatalities caused by disease or starvation, for example, are not included in these estimates. Other sources may come to different figures due to differing methodologies and catchments.
11 – 17 March 2023
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Donetsk region, particularly in and around Bakhmut, as well as in the area of Avdiivka and Marinka. Russian forces reportedly seized Zaliznianske, north of Bakhmut, and Krasnohorivka, north of Avdiivka.2Karolina Hird et al, ‘Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2023’, Institute for the Study of War, 15 March 2023 ; Karolina Hird et al, ‘Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16, 2023’, Institute for the Study of War, 16 March 2023 Fighting also continued along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, where Ukrainian forces reportedly recaptured the town of Novoselivske in the area of Svatove.3Alina Kuleba, ‘AFU drove away the enemy from Novoselivske near Svatove,’ 24 Channel, 13 March 2023 Clashes also resumed in the areas of Orikhiv and Polohy in the Zaporizhia region. Additionally, Ukrainian partisan groups reportedly blew up a railway in the Kherson region used for the resupply of Russian forces and killed two alleged Russian collaborators in the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
Russian forces continued to shell civilian infrastructure along the frontline, reportedly killing over a dozen civilians in the Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Sumy regions. At least one more person was killed and nine were wounded due to the detonations of landmines and unexploded shells in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, and Mykolaiv regions. Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova for the unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia.4ICC, ‘Situation in Ukraine: ICC judges issue arrest warrants against Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova,’ 17 March 2023
For previous situation updates and infographics, click here.
This dashboard includes political violence events in Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion on 24 February 2022. By default, the map displays data for the most recent week. Use the filters on the left to analyze trends in more detail.
This file contains all political violence events, demonstration events, and strategic developments recorded in Ukraine and the Black Sea from the beginning of ACLED coverage in 2018 to the present.
For an overview, see our interactive dashboard.
Information & Analysis
For additional information on the conflict in Ukraine, check our analysis of political violence trends from the start of ACLED coverage in 2018.