Early Warning

Conflict Change Map


The Conflict Change Map identifies countries around the globe experiencing rising political violence. The dashboard displays two filled maps of the world: the first highlights (in dark red) countries with a large increase in violence during the past month relative to the past year; and the second highlights countries with a large increase in violence during the past week relative to the past month. These countries are flagged in the watchlist accompanying each map. Please note that these maps depict change in violence rates, not overall violence levels. A very violent country that experiences a significant decline in violence may still be very violent, but it will register a “large decrease in violence” on these maps.

Using the Conflict Change Map

The countries on the map are colored based on changes in their rates of political violence. The colors and their corresponding categories and thresholds are as follows:

ColorCategoryPercent Change Thresholds
Dark RedLarge increase in violenceGreater than 25%
Light RedModerate increase in violenceBetween 10% and 25%
Light TealLimited change in violenceBetween -25% and 10%
Dark TealLarge decrease in violenceLess than -25%

Countries with large increases in violence (those in dark red on each map) are listed on the watchlist accompanying each map.

Why might a country experience a significant spike in violence? To better understand the factors behind these surges, see ACLED’s Regional Overviews, which describe and contextualize the latest developments and trends in political disorder across each region during the previous week. Use ACLED’s global dashboard to map wider macro-level trends.