ACLED CAST is a new conflict forecasting tool that predicts political violence events up to six months in the future for every country in the world. Updated predictions are released each month for the following six months, alongside accuracy metrics for previous forecasts.
Data cover the period of 4 Mar 23 - 10 Mar 23. For more information about how ACLED collects data and categorizes events, see the ACLED Codebook.
Political Violence Events: 2,168ℹ
-17% from previous week
Demonstration Events: 3,423ℹ
+11% from previous week
Battles: 554 Events
Explosions/Remote Violence: 986 Events
Violence Against Civilians: 452 Events
Mob Violence: 176 Events
Protests: 3,239 Events
Violent Demonstrations: 184 Events
The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world.
In ACLED’s new Conflict Watchlist, we identify a range of crisis areas that are likely to evolve in the coming year — for better and for worse. More than a rundown of violent hotspots, the Watchlist highlights some of the world’s most complex conflicts, where a combination of subnational, regional, and international dynamics are likely to produce major shifts in each case’s trajectory in 2023.
A New Measure of the Complexities of Conflict
Drawing on the latest data, our Conflict Severity Index assesses four key indicators to identify the most severe forms of conflict around the world. At the start of 2023, 19 countries meet the Index’s criteria for high or extreme levels of conflict severity, ranging from Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Ukraine to Mali, Myanmar, and Yemen.
Our monthly analysis briefs break down the latest data on political violence and protest trends, highlighting potential early warning signs for closer monitoring. Select a region from the list below to see the latest regional overview.
An analysis of anti-government demonstrations and separatist violence in Thailand prior to the 2023 general election.
Nigeria’s historic elections are threatened by rising insecurity. This report assesses political violence trends going into the vote and the risk of escalation in the post-election period.
Heightened levels of political violence continued into the presidential runoff in Brazil, raising concerns over further outbreaks of unrest beyond the election period.
The security situation in the West Bank deteriorated significantly in the lead-up to Israel’s 2022 legislative elections.
Antagonism between Bolsonaro’s administration and the opposition has fueled increased electoral violence, which continues to pose a threat ahead of the presidential runoff.
Kenya went to the polls on 9 August 2022 after a five-year cycle and the third general election since the promulgation of a new constitution in 2010
The Ethiopia Peace Observatory (EPO) is a special project launched by ACLED to enhance local data collection across Ethiopia. The EPO aims to provide a dedicated platform for governments, media, civil society, and the public to access reliable information and analysis about political violence and unrest across the country.
Cabo Ligado (‘connected cape’) is a conflict observatory established by ACLED in partnership with Zitamar News and MediaFax to monitor political violence in Mozambique. The project supports real-time data collection on the insurgency in the country’s northern Cabo Delgado province and provides cutting-edge analysis of the latest conflict trends.
