Published on: 22 November 2023 | Last updated: 15 December 2023
On 7 October 2023, Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups launched Operation al-Aqsa Flood, a coordinated land and air assault on multiple border areas of Israel. The attack and Israel’s retaliatory response with airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza have resulted in the deadliest chapter in the Israel-Palestine conflict thus far.
Challenges in coding fatalities in Gaza since 7 October 2023
In ACLED’s disaggregated event-based dataset, fatalities are recorded when they can be attributed to specific events, based on the information reported (for more, see this ACLED Knowledge Base Fatalities Q&A article). Journalists and aid organizations have had great difficulty reporting from Gaza since 7 October.1Scott Simon, ‘Why it’s so hard for journalists to report from Gaza,’ NPR, 11 November 2023This, coupled with the intensity of the conflict, means that information on fatalities attributed to specific incidents is limited and incomplete. Instead, fatalities are reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health (MOH) as an aggregate number for the entirety of Gaza for a collective period spanning several days. Based on MOH statistics and ACLED’s comprehensive data collection for Gaza in October, it is estimated that only half of all reported fatalities have been reported to specific events.
In order to adapt to this information environment and avoid significant undercounting of fatalities in Gaza, ACLED decided to incorporate MOH-reported fatality counts into the dataset. Regional experts, international human rights organizations,2Chris McGreal, ‘Can we trust casualty figures from the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry?,’ The Guardian, 27 October 2023and journalists3Isabel Debre, ‘What is Gaza’s Ministry of Health and how does it calculate the war’s death toll?,’ Associated Press, 6 November 2023have widely regarded the MOH as the most reliable source on civilian fatality counts in Gaza.
ACLED does not typically use fatality numbers from aggregated reports, such as fatality records from morgues or hospitals, as these records include ‘indirect deaths’ — which ACLED does not code — that happen as an indirect effect or consequence of the conflict (e.g. famine, disease, or structural lack of access to health care), but not directly due to armed violence.4 Every Casualty Counts, ‘Direct and indirect conflict deaths,’ accessed on 22 November 2023However, the MOH directly attributes fatalities reported for Gaza to “Israeli aggression.”5 Isabel Debre, ‘What is Gaza’s Ministry of Health and how does it calculate the war’s death toll?,’ Associated Press, 6 November 2023As the MOH does not distinguish between civilian and combatant fatalities, there have been disputes over the fatality number breakdown between civilians and Palestinian armed group combatants. Additionally, the MOH list has included some fatalities that may be attributable to Palestinian armed groups or are undetermined, such as the al-Ahli Hospital explosion.6 Isabel Debre, ‘What is Gaza’s Ministry of Health and how does it calculate the war’s death toll?,’ Associated Press, 6 November 2023; ‘A Close Look at Some Key Evidence in the Gaza Hospital Blast,’ New York Times, 24 October 2023
Fatalities attributed to specific events account for the vast majority of fatalities ACLED recorded for armed clashes and a portion of fatalities recorded for remote violence. Based on the information ACLED has collected on these fatalities, we deduce that the remainder of unattributable MOH fatalities are related to events for which an unspecified, but likely high, number of fatalities was reported. The overwhelming majority of these events are ‘Air/drone strike’ and ‘Shelling/artillery/missile attack’ events in urban areas of Gaza. This includes any errant missiles fired by Palestinian groups from inside Gaza.
While this assumption risks a number of combatant fatalities being recorded as civilian fatalities, as well as a limited number of fatalities being included from incidents other than airstrikes and artillery shellings, we believe it to be the best approach given the limited information available (for more, see the ACLED Knowledge Base – Fatalities Q&A article and the question What are the known biases of fatality numbers?).
How are MOH fatality counts for Gaza incorporated in ACLED data?
This section explains how MOH fatality counts for Gaza are incorporated into ACLED data for the period of 7 October to 22 November 2023. Fatality counts from more recent dates will be incorporated into the data following the same methodology as such information becomes available.
- ACLED compiled MOH press releases from between 7 October to 22 November that included information on fatality numbers. The MOH published these press releases at irregular intervals; i.e. the first press release was published on 7 October, and subsequent reports were released on 11 October, 12 October, 15 October, and so on.
- The total number of fatalities reported by the MOH from 7 October to 22 November is 14,854, which is higher than the total number of fatalities ACLED recorded for specific events for the same period based on other sources.
- To incorporate the fatalities reported by the MOH into ACLED data, the difference in fatalities attributed to specific events that ACLED recorded between the dates of subsequent MOH press releases was subtracted from the difference in fatalities reported by the MOH over the same period.7 Since the MOH does not specify when fatalities occurred, ACLED assumes that fatality numbers reported by the MOH do not include fatalities that occurred on the day the report was released to account for potential reporting delays. For example, ACLED assumes that fatality numbers from a press release dated 11 October only includes fatalities that happened up to 10 October.The remaining fatalities were then evenly redistributed across events recorded between the day of the last report and the day before the most recent report where an unspecified but likely high (i.e. over 10) number of fatalities was reported. This is expressed by the following formula:
(total number of MOH fatalities between P and Q − total number of ACLED fatalities attributed to specific events recorded between P and R) ÷ N |
P = date of preceding MOH report
Q = date of next available MOH report
R = date of next available MOH report − 1 day
N = number of events recorded between P and R with unspecified, but likely high (i.e. over 10), death tolls
- For example, as of the MOH’s 3 November press release, the death toll in Gaza since 7 October was 9,257, an increase of 732 fatalities from the previous press release on 31 October. Over the same period (i.e. from 31 October to 2 November, both days inclusive), ACLED recorded a total of 498 fatalities attributed to specific events. The difference between the increase in fatalities reported by the MOH and the increase in the reported fatalities ACLED recorded over the same period, 234, was then evenly distributed across all events from the same period where an unspecified but likely high number of fatalities had been reported.
- Events in which these fatalities were redistributed have a standard explanation in the notes in square brackets, as follows:
- On 1 November 2023, Israeli military airplanes struck targets in Gaza City (Gaza City, Gaza Strip). Several persons were killed and injured. [Palestinian Ministry of Health reported 11078 fatalities between 27 October – 10 November. 234 fatalities not attributed to specific events added to 3 events between 31 October – 2 November. 78 fatalities coded to this event.]
These changes were applied to the data on 4 December 2023, resulting in an addition of approximately 8,300 fatalities for the period of 7 October to 22 November 2023. ACLED continues to incorporate fatality reports from the MOH in the same manner for more recent dates, and may also adjust fatality counts for specific events should more reliable information emerge. A previous version of how MOH fatalities were incorporated into ACLED’s event dataset can be found in the Annex below.
Annex
Previous ACLED methodology for coding fatalities in Gaza since 7 October 2023
Below is the first iteration of how ACLED incorporated MOH fatalities. This methodology was applied to the data on 21 November 2023, for events recorded over the period of 7 to 26 October.
This section explains how MOH fatality counts for Gaza were incorporated into ACLED data for the period of 7 to 26 October. Fatality counts from more recent dates will be incorporated into the data following the same methodology as such information becomes available.
- ACLED compiled MOH press releases from between 7 to 26 October that included information on fatality numbers. The MOH published these press releases at irregular intervals; i.e. the first press release was published on 7 October, and subsequent reports were released on 11 October, 12 October, 15 October, and so on.
- The total number of fatalities reported by the MOH from 7 to 26 October is 6,747, which is higher than the total number of fatalities ACLED recorded for the same period based on other sources.
- To incorporate the fatalities reported by the MOH into ACLED data, the total number of fatalities recorded by ACLED up to the date of the latest MOH report (inclusive of fatalities reported by the MOH that were already incorporated into ACLED data up to the date of the preceding press release) was subtracted from the total number of fatalities reported by the MOH up to the same date. The difference was then divided by the number of ‘Air/drone strike’ and ‘Shelling/artillery/missile attack’ events on urban areas with no information on injuries or fatalities or the absence of either, recorded between the day of the last report and the day of the most recent report. This is expressed by the following formula:
(total number of MOH fatalities up to Q – total number of ACLED fatalities up to Q)÷N |
N = number of ‘Air/drone strike’ and ‘Shelling/artillery/missile attack’ events on urban areas recorded between P and Q with no information on injuries or fatalities or the absence of either.
P = date of preceding MOH report
Q = date of next available MOH report
- For example, as of the MOH’s 20 October press release, the death toll in Gaza since 7 October was 4,137. Over the same period, ACLED recorded a total of 3,914 fatalities in Gaza, inclusive of fatalities reported by the MOH that were already incorporated into ACLED data up to the date of the preceding press release on 19 October. The difference between the two fatality numbers, 223, was then evenly distributed across strikes on urban areas in Gaza that do not have any information on injuries or fatalities or the absence of either.
- Events in which these fatalities were redistributed have a standard explanation in the notes in square brackets, as follows:
- On 20 October 2023, Israeli forces launched airstrikes at a house, two apartments as well as at a bakery in Al Fallujah area in Mukhayyam Jabalya refugee camp (North Gaza, Gaza Strip). Injuries were reported in at least one of the attacks. [Palestinian Ministry of Health reported 6,747 fatalities between 7-26 October. 223 fatalities not attributed to specific events split across 18 events on 20 October. 13 fatalities coded to this event.]
These changes were applied to the data on 21 November 2023, resulting in an addition of roughly 3,650 fatalities for the period of 7 to 26 October 2023. ACLED continues to incorporate fatality reports from the MOH in the same manner for more recent dates, and may also adjust fatality counts for specific events should more reliable information emerge.