Situation Update | June 2023

Kenya: How Azimio Coalition’s Remobilization of Supporters Signals Potential Future Escalation

9 June 2023

Kenya at a Glance: 22 April-2 June 2023

VITAL TRENDS

From 22 April to 2 June, ACLED records 110 political violence events resulting in nearly 80 reported fatalities. Nairobi county registered the highest number of political violence events, mainly due to riots.
Marsabit county had the highest number of fatalities, with nine recorded during the reporting period. Turkana and Samburu counties followed, with seven reported fatalities each. Ethnic militia activity resulted in over 30% of reported fatalities.
The most common event type was riots, at over 100 events, followed by protests, at nearly 90. The opposition Azimio la Umoja (Resolution for Unity) One Kenya Coalition Party organized a second round of demonstrations against the high cost of living and alleged election fraud on 2 May.

How Azimio Coalition’s Remobilization of Supporters Signals Potential Future Escalation

The opposition Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party has been rallying its supporters to call on the government to address multiple grievances, including reducing high living costs and opening the election servers from last year’s presidential voting. Former presidential candidate Raila Odinga is leading the mobilization, first calling for nationwide protests in March. This first round of demonstrations ended on 2 April after both President William Ruto and Odinga agreed to address the issues raised by the demonstrations through a bipartisan parliamentary dialogue process.¹ After a month-long pause, Azimio Coalition and Odinga again called supporters to the streets, and Kenya saw a second spike in unrest in May (see graph below). This report focuses on the disorder trends related to the opposition-led anti-government unrest during the reporting period. It specifically looks at the events leading to the most recent unrest, the characteristics of activity, the government’s response, and the possibility of escalation following the collapse of the bipartisan talks.

Second Round of Opposition-Led Demonstrations Amid Bipartisan Talks

Anti-government demonstrators returned to the streets on 2 May after Azimio’s assessment that the government lacked commitment to address the grievances raised by the opposition in the bipartisan talks.² The main point of contention was the membership and composition of the government side in the talks. President Ruto named Eldas Member of Parliament (MP) Adan Keynan to the government bipartisan talks team. Adan Kenyan, however, is an MP elected from the Jubilee Party, an affiliate of the Azimio Coalition. Some critics have claimed that this amounted to Ruto “toying” with the opposition.³

Similar to the demonstrations in March, the majority of the events were violent demonstrations – 14 out of 25 total. While demonstrations were largely limited to the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, other towns in the western region – typically support bases for Azimio Coalition – were also affected (see map below). In contrast to the unrest in March, however, the May demonstrations were more geographically concentrated, and no fatalities were recorded. Nairobi and Kisumu counties were again the epicenters of demonstration activity by Azimio Coalition supporters. On 2 May, ACLED records demonstration events in at least 21 locations in six counties, including Nairobi, Homabay, Kisumu, Vihiga, Siaya, and Migori.

Demonstration events were recorded in at least eight locations across Nairobi on 2 May. All but one of these demonstrations were violent (see map above). Along Ngong road in Nairobi, demonstrators pelted stones at a public service vehicle, before torching it using petrol bombs.⁴ A few hours later, along the Southern bypass in Langata, another group of demonstrators attacked a driver of a cargo truck heading to Uganda, and then set it on fire.⁵ Also in Nairobi, demonstrators looted 12 gas cylinders and vandalized fuel pumps and vehicles parked at the Shell petrol station along Juja road near Eastleigh. Police fired live bullets to disperse the group, injuring at least three people. These incidents paralyzed transport and business in the affected areas of the capital.⁶ However, Azimio refuted the involvement of its supporters in violence, terming the perpetrators as “hired goons” who were out to malign the opposition protests.⁷

Outside the capital, more than half of the demonstrations turned violent. For instance, in Kondele in Kisumu county, Azimio Coalition supporters barricaded the Kakamega road and attempted to storm the Kondele police station. Running battles ensued as police officers lobbed teargas to disperse the group. Dozens, including police officers, were injured. Although the leader of the National Rainbow Coalition–Kenya alleged that Azimio leadership’s efforts to mobilize supporters were thwarted by the heavy deployment of the police, there is indication of Azimio supporters’ lackluster participation in the protests.⁸ Some supporters fault Azimio’s demands around electoral justice, arguing that it was needless to pressure the government on this point after the Supreme Court unanimously upheld Ruto’s victory.⁹ This could partly explain the waning popularity of the Azimio Coalition, which dropped in the recent household-based polls. Meanwhile, President Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza alliance has gained popularity, dethroning Azimio as the most popular coalition.¹⁰

Security forces intervened in over half of the Azimio-led demonstration events in May. On 30 April, police declared the planned demonstrations in Nairobi illegal, citing the violent and chaotic nature of the demonstrations in March, including attacks on non-demonstrators, destruction of property, looting, vandalism, and the loss of life.¹¹ At least eight reported fatalities were recorded during the demonstrations in March, mostly at the hands of police forces.

According to Human Rights Watch, riot police used excessive lethal force to suppress the demonstrations, while also arbitrarily arresting and beating civilians, and destroying property.¹² On 2 May, security officers set up roadblocks leading to the central business district in Nairobi and attempted to disperse the demonstrators using teargas, firing live bullets, and making arrests. Police also reportedly shot at demonstrators near Eastleigh in Nairobi, injuring three people, including a 17-year-old.¹³ In addition, 14 people were arrested in Nairobi and 32 in Nyanza region, for allegedly engaging in robbery and destruction of property during the demonstrations.¹⁴ Among those arrested in the Nyanza region, specifically in Kisumu, was a nominated member of the county assembly.¹⁵

Bipartisan Talks Fail Again Due to Political Differences

While more demonstrations were planned for 4 May, the Azimio Coalition announced the suspension of the mobilization and vowed to resume the bipartisan talks. This decision came after the move by the Kenya Kwanza Alliance government to replace the Jubilee MP, Adan Keynan, in the bipartisan talks.¹⁶ The Azimio Coalition had protested his inclusion, claiming that he could not participate in the talks on behalf of the government because Jubilee Party is part of the Azimio Coalition. Although that is the case officially, internal power struggles within the party have created two factions with different alliances.¹⁷ The suspension of the demonstrations also coincided with visits from United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz; Azimio leader Odinga claimed the government complied with their demand to replace the Jubilee MP in the bipartisan talks in order to avoid embarrassment before the high-profile foreign visitors.¹⁸ However, other sources claim the suspension of the demonstrations was directly linked to the arrival of these high-profile leaders for the sake of Odinga’s reputation.¹⁹

The outcome of the bipartisan talks hangs in limbo after the Azimio Coalition walked out of the negotiations. On 23 May, Azimio Coalition announced the suspension of talks for seven days, citing the failure of the government to address their demands related to food costs and electoral justice.²⁰ However, viewed as “unnecessary roadblocks,” the government side was quick to dismiss the move as “premature,” noting that there were no irreconcilable differences.²¹

Seven days later, Azimio Coalition withdrew from the talks and asked that the 2023 Finance Bill be revoked, and by-elections be held for Jubilee MPs who have defected to the Kenya Kwanza Alliance.²² The bill seeks to boost revenue and cut public borrowing by raising taxes, a move that has been criticized by opponents as adversely affecting small business owners and struggling households.²³ Busia county Senator and Azimio Coalition ally, Okia Omtata, and four others have filed a petition to the High Court, arguing that some sections of the 2023 Finance Bill are unconstitutional.²⁴ The collapse of the bipartisan talks, coupled with the possible passage of the Finance Bill as is, could mean that another round of unrest is on the horizon – as Odinga has already implied.²⁵ Azimio has also indicated that it would pursue ‘secession’ as a last resort in protest against government policies,²⁶ a move that was condemned by the interior cabinet secretary.²⁷

In addition, there are fears of the resurgence of the outlawed Mungiki youth gang.²⁸ Supporters of former Mungiki leader and opposition politician, Maina Njenga, recently clashed with the police outside the Directorate of Criminal Investigation headquarters in Nairobi, where Njenga had been summoned for questioning in relation to a cache of weapons allegedly found in one of his residences.²⁹ Unless the two factions return to the negotiating table and pursue genuine talks to resolve their disputes, Kenya will likely experience continuing unrest and political instability and might also witness the resurgence of gang militias exploiting instability in the country.