ACLED CAST

Conflict Alert System

The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) is a new conflict forecasting tool that predicts political violence events up to six months in the future for every country in the world. Updated predictions are released each month for the following six months, alongside accuracy metrics for previous forecasts.

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Monthly Report

The monthly ACLED CAST report highlights key forecasts for the coming month in an immersive scrollytelling format.

Download Results

Access a data file containing monthly forecasts produced by ACLED CAST as well as the observed number of events for each month.