Riding the Tide: The Shifting Identity of the Proud Boys Since the Capitol Riot

An updated profile of the most active and violent far-right group in the United States

14 December 2023

In response to the January 2021 riot at the United States Capitol, law enforcement arrested leaders and top lieutenants of numerous far-right groups, including the Oath Keepers, Three Percenters, and Proud Boys.¹ One of the most notable arrests took place in early 2022, when Stewart Rhodes, the founder and leader of the Oath Keepers, and Enrique Tarrio, the then-national chairman of the Proud Boys, were arrested on a range of charges in relation to their participation in the Capitol riot. Both have since been convicted of seditious conspiracy, with Tarrio’s verdict handed down in May 2023 alongside other influential Proud Boys, including Joe Biggs.² In September, Tarrio was sentenced to 22 years in prison.³

The impact of these arrests on both high-profile groups has been significant, though markedly different. The Oath Keepers suffered from a rapidly diminishing number of active chapters following the Capitol riot, with activity nearly ceasing.⁴ By contrast, the Proud Boys became more active in 2021 and 2022 than in 2020 – coinciding with claims of a surge in recruitment after the riot.⁵ While events involving the Proud Boys have decreased in 2023 (see graph below), the group consistently ranks as one of the most active and violent far-right groups in the United States. In this update to our 2021 actor profile on the Proud Boys, we analyze ACLED data on key developments in the group’s activity from 2021 through 2023, identifying new drivers of mobilization across the country. Analysis of the data shows that Proud Boys activity varies widely from state to state, largely as a result of the group’s decentralized leadership structure, which has grown increasingly diffuse as a result of internal splintering since the Capitol riot. Despite this fracturing, the Proud Boys continue to mobilize around dominant trends in right-wing politics, frequently appearing at rallies with other groups sharing similar ideological platforms.

Going With the Crowd

The ability of the Proud Boys to maintain relevance within the far-right milieu is underpinned by a high degree of opportunism. Their ideological flexibility has meant that while overall mobilization has declined between 2020 and 2023, its drivers have shifted in focus on multiple occasions, largely depending on fluctuations in the issues that appeared to hold more sway in far-right circles at a given time (see graph below). In 2020, the final year of Donald Trump’s presidency, events in which Proud Boys showed support for Trump, for instance by demonstrating in favor of him or by attacking anti-Trump demonstrators, constituted more than half of all Proud Boys activity. Although demonstrations supporting former President Trump’s unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud continued after he left office, this figure subsided in 2021 as new issues began to dominate the far-right scene. By 2022, while the group remained roughly as active as in prior years, pro-Trump events had declined to just over 12% of the group’s activity.

Similarly, the Proud Boys rarely mobilized around the issue of abortion prior to a sudden spike in spring 2022. In the three months following the May 2022 leak of the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Roe v. Wade, the group participated in roughly the same number of abortion-related demonstrations as it had in the previous two years combined. The surge in abortion-related activity quickly fell off shortly thereafter: ultimately, the Proud Boys took part in more anti-abortion demonstrations in the first two months after the decision was leaked than in all the months since combined.

More recently, coinciding with a wave of anti-LGBTQ+ legislation introduced across the country,⁶ the Proud Boys have shifted their efforts to anti-LGBTQ+ mobilization. During the first 11 months of 2023, engagement in anti-LGBTQ+ events accounted for roughly 73% of all demonstrations involving the Proud Boys, compared to 42% in 2022, which had also seen a significant increase from just 8% in 2021. This shows a dramatic evolution in the group’s focus: in 2020, anti-LGBTQ+ demonstrations represented a tiny fraction of the Proud Boys’ participation in events, at less than 1% of their total demonstration activity.

Opportunistic Collaboration with Other Far-Right Groups

Relationships between the Proud Boys and other far-right groups have evolved as they ride the wave of far-right political trends. The Proud Boys have appeared alongside a variety of different actors during rallies, largely depending on which groups have interests that converge with their own. Christian activists and Republican Party officials are among the most frequent actors to join events involving the Proud Boys, with their presence being reported in 12% and 10% of total recorded events, respectively. Notably, the opportunism of the Proud Boys is marked by temporal shifts in the groups they act alongside. In 2020, in response to a surge of demonstrations in support of the Black Lives Matter movement over the summer, the Proud Boys appeared most frequently with pro-police groups, such as demonstrators chanting slogans like ‘Back the Blue’ or waving ‘Thin Blue Line’ flags.⁷ This co-participation was most pronounced in the lead-up to the 2020 election, and spiked in November. The participation of Christian groups alongside Proud Boys spiked in 2022, notably around December. This month marked both the highest number of anti-LGBTQ+ demonstrations involving the Proud Boys and the highest levels of co-participation of Christian groups and the Proud Boys.

The joint participation of the Proud Boys and militia groups in events has also shifted over time. For instance, the co-presence of the Proud Boys and Three Percenters reached its peak in 2020 and has significantly decreased since then. In May 2023, members of the Arizona Highlands chapter of the Proud Boys began to actively collaborate with Veterans on Patrol (VOP), a border vigilante group that conducts ‘patrols’ to prevent migration into the US. The Proud Boys participated in a patrol along the border with Mexico with VOP and also conducted at least one solo patrol. The Proud Boys in Arizona may become more involved in border vigilantism in the future as a result of this new activity, though no subsequent border activity has been reported since.⁸ Anti-immigration or border-related actions involving the Proud Boys are not as prevalent in other states, further reflecting the disparity in focus between different chapters of the group. In general, other militia groups and militant social movements have not been found alongside the Proud Boys at demonstrations, unlike Christian groups and the Republican Party.

Collaboration with far-right groups has recently stirred controversy between regional chapters of the Proud Boys.⁹ In June 2023, the Proud Boys in Oregon fought with members of the Rose City Nationalists (RCN), a neo-Nazi organization, near a Pride event in Oregon City over what appeared to start as a personal dispute. As they fought, Oregon Proud Boys called RCN members “racists” and pulled masks off of RCN members’ faces; this pierced the public anonymity that members of both groups generally try to preserve and later led to RCN members being identified online.¹⁰ In the aftermath of the street fight, there was a split in the reactions of the Proud Boys’ online messaging channels. Some, including members of a North Carolina chapter, showed support for fighting the RCN and opposing neo-Nazis, while others, such as a Missouri chapter, decried action against another “nationalist organization.”¹¹ At the same time, some chapters appeared to cut ties with the wider organization, while other neo-Nazi groups, such as the National Socialist Club-131, called for disgruntled Proud Boys to join neo-Nazi organizations. Other chapters, such as the Northwest Ohio Proud Boys, took a third approach, condemning the actions of the Oregon Proud Boys and explicitly supporting white nationalists, but continuing to show support for the wider Proud Boys organization, as seen on Regional Ohio Proud Boys Telegram channel. For the moment, it is unclear to what extent this incident will have an impact on cohesion between different chapters of the Proud Boys, or on future interactions between the Proud Boys and neo-Nazi organizations. Nonetheless, the incident reflects ideological divisions across different members and chapters of the group.

A Fragmented Structure

Public Proud Boys activities were reported across at least 35 states and Washington, DC between 2020 and November 2023. The highest event counts were recorded in California, Oregon, and Florida, which together saw about 45% of all Proud Boys activity during this period. The group was most active around Sacramento and Los Angeles in California, Salem in Oregon, and Miami in Florida, as well as in Washington, DC. The geographic dispersion of Proud Boys activity is heavily impacted by the group’s decentralized chapter structure, which has shifted over time.

The structure of the Proud Boys has long been based on decentralized regional chapters, which possess more autonomy than groups with a comparatively top-down hierarchy like the Oath Keepers.¹² Tarrio, who succeeded Proud Boys founder Gavin McInnes after a brief transition period, was arrested in January 2021 for carrying high-capacity magazines in Washington, DC, where their possession is banned. Shortly thereafter, a Reuters report revealed that Tarrio had been an undercover law enforcement informant at both local and federal levels between 2012 and 2014.¹³ These developments led to the splintering of several regional chapters of the group. In February 2021, Proud Boys chapters in Indiana, Alabama, and Oklahoma announced that they had disavowed the group’s national leadership, though analysts note that these claims should be viewed with skepticism.¹⁴

Still, prior to the Capitol riot, the group’s national leadership was known to take charge of organizing high-profile events. For example, Tarrio directed members of the group to forgo clothing with insignias ahead of the riot in the hopes of better blending in with the larger crowd.¹⁵ However, Proud Boys chapters responded differently in the wake of the Capitol riot, the arrest of the group’s leadership, and the revelation that Tarrio had worked as an informant. Some chapters said they would no longer participate in public actions and would instead focus on being men’s clubs. Others participated repeatedly in ‘Stop the Steal’ rallies or grew closer to antisemitic far-right groups.¹⁶ One month after Tarrio was arrested for his role in the Capitol riot, the Proud Boys posted the message “NATIONAL PROUD BOYS CHAPTERS DO NOT EXIST” on their Telegram channel, suggesting that the group had no centralized leadership to speak of – despite communicating via their national account – and further emphasizing the importance of state and city chapters. Because the group has grown to be more clandestine and decentralized, the status of its current national leadership and its authority over particular chapters is unclear.¹⁷

The fragmentation of the Proud Boys has had notable impacts on the geography of their activity. In 2020, the majority of Proud Boys demonstrations in nearly every state where the group was active showed support for then-President Trump. In the following years, anti-vaccine, anti-LGBTQ+, and anti-abortion agendas have variously driven mobilization. In fact, the focus of Proud Boys participation in demonstrations has been far more varied from state to state, reflecting the different priorities of the group’s decentralized regional chapters (see maps below).

As an example of the state-by-state variation, from January 2021 to November 2023, anti-LGBTQ+ demonstrations made up roughly a fourth of all demonstration events involving the Proud Boys in Oregon, compared to roughly 38% in California, 47% in North Carolina, and 58% in Texas. The exact source of these disparities is likely due to ideological and strategic differences among the group’s regional branches. Regardless, they are further evidence of decentralization among the separate regional chapters. Likewise, pro-Trump demonstrations made up more than a quarter of all demonstrations involving the Proud Boys in Oregon during this period, but were practically non-existent in Texas. Opposition to abortion rights instead dominates Proud Boys demonstration activity in Idaho, but is negligible in Florida, Texas, and Oregon.

Overall, the number of events involving the Proud Boys in California exceeds that of any other state in the country by nearly double. The importance of the California chapters has grown noticeably over the years, accounting for over 43% of total Proud Boys activity from January to November 2023, having only made up 10% of total activity in 2020 (see graph below). Proud Boys activity in the state has spiked on several occasions, largely in response to the state’s domestic political scene. These spikes took place around an initiative to recall State Governor Gavin Newsom in March 2021, ‘freedom convoy’ demonstrations against vaccine mandates in February 2022, and more recently in June 2023 as a result of anti-LGBTQ+ activity during Pride month. Led by the Democratic Party, the state administration responded aggressively to the COVID-19 pandemic and passed among the strongest protections for LGBTQ+ rights in the country. Still, California also has more than five million registered Republicans and sees sharp ideological divides in certain areas, which helps to explain high levels of Proud Boys activity around Sacramento and Los Angeles. Two districts in the southeast area of Los Angeles elected Republicans to the House of Representatives in 2022, as did two congressional districts that include Sacramento’s eastern suburbs.

By contrast, the number of events involving the Proud Boys in Oregon, which saw the most events involving the Proud Boys in 2020 and the second most in 2021, fell by more than two thirds from 2021-2022. This is largely because chapters of the Proud Boys in the state mobilized more strongly in support of former President Trump, particularly before and directly after the 2020 election. Though Oregon previously saw roughly 15% of all Proud Boys events each year, so far in 2023 it has seen only 8%. Similarly, Proud Boys activity in Florida constituted 15% of the group’s overall activity in 2021. That year, the Proud Boys participated in a considerable number of demonstrations against COVID-19 pandemic restrictions, as well as demonstrations in solidarity with an anti-government movement in Cuba. So far in 2023, Florida constitutes just 8% of all Proud Boys events. The group’s fifth most active state in 2020 and 2021 was Washington, where activity was largely driven by demonstrations in support of Trump and against pandemic restrictions. However, ACLED so far records no activity in Washington in 2023.

While these differences may correspond to local political conditions in each state, much of the variation may also be linked to enduring differences in tactics and group culture between Proud Boys chapters. Certain chapters place emphasis on traveling to participate in demonstrations and street fights, while others are more concerned with local issues and social events.¹⁸ Many of these differences stem from varying degrees of oversight from the group’s national leadership as new chapters were formed. Several Proud Boys chapters have been using white supremacist rhetoric for years, even when the group’s national leadership was intact and explicitly denied any connection to racist beliefs. Local leadership also plays a role in the differences between chapters. When Tarrio was in charge of the Miami Proud Boys chapter, that chapter was more involved in electoral politics: Tarrio ran for the House of Representatives and maintained connections with political operative Roger Stone.

These differences also manifest with significant regional variance in the propensity of Proud Boys to engage in violence. The Proud Boys have a long history of confronting other groups, especially mobilizing in opposition to large protest movements. For instance, Proud Boys participated in an elevated number of ‘pro-life’ demonstrations during a wave of ‘pro-choice’ demonstrations after Roe v. Wade was overturned. This pattern of counter-demonstrations extends to pro-LGBTQ+, anti-Trump, and Black Lives Matter movements as well. Yet, while just over 25% of all Proud Boys counter-demonstration activity turned violent in 2020, this proportion has increased to around 45% in the first 11 months of 2023. The Proud Boys are infrequently involved in violent demonstrations in Florida, Texas, and Arizona, but are more likely to engage with other groups, especially antifascists, in Oregon. Though demonstrations involving the Proud Boys turned violent roughly 20% of the time between January 2020 and November 2023 overall – more often than any other far-right actor in the US – violent demonstrations in Oregon were more than three times more prevalent than in Washington and nearly nine times more frequent than in Arizona. Violent demonstrations made up more than 40% of the group’s overall demonstration activity in Oregon during the same period.

Towards the 2024 Presidential Election

The 2024 presidential election will likely fuel the Proud Boys’ mobilization in the near future, particularly if former President Trump clinches the Republican nomination for the party’s presidential candidate, as the group has made a point of supporting him in the past. Amid Trump’s escalated rhetoric after facing charges of election manipulation, if claims of voter fraud continue, it is possible the Proud Boys could also escalate their activity – particularly in states that are predicted to see a close race.¹⁹ In the three months following Trump’s unsubstantiated claims of election fraud in the 2020 election, more than 60% of demonstrations involving the Proud Boys echoed his claims and called for a new election. In addition, the former president is currently indicted for allegedly mishandling classified documents, falsifying business documents in New York, attempting to prevent the certification of the presidential election in Georgia, and attempting to subvert the presidential election in federal court.²⁰ Former President Trump’s arrests and indictments themselves will likely prove consequential in shaping future activity among far-right groups like the Proud Boys.²¹

Though the election may provide a larger platform for the Proud Boys and may broaden its focus, it is unclear how the group’s deepened horizontal structure will impact mobilization around the vote. Not all signs point to Proud Boys turning out in support of former President Trump in the same way they did in 2020. Many Proud Boys have felt betrayed by and disillusioned with Trump since his refusal to assist any Proud Boys convicted for their role in the Capitol riot.²² More recently, in the weeks before Trump’s arrest for falsifying business records, he called for demonstrations and prayer vigils to show opposition to the prosecution. Proud Boys participation in these demonstrations was negligible: a very small number of Proud Boys gathered on one occasion outside Mar-A-Lago, Trump’s private club residence in Palm Beach. Since then, public Proud Boys support for Trump has been essentially nonexistent, even as a small number of demonstrations led by other Trump supporters have been held outside courthouses where he has faced charges. Republican presidential candidates Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy have suggested that the sentencing of convicted Proud Boys leaders was unjust, invoking the possibility of a presidential pardon if elected.²³ If Trump were to pursue a similar approach, he could court members of the group to regain more active support.

Regardless, if ongoing legislative efforts on the state level can be taken as an indication of how debate will be shaped in the presidential election, LGBTQ+ and abortion rights will likely be among the topics to take center stage. Combined with the significant role the Proud Boys played in far-right mobilization around these issues, the group’s activity could stand to escalate in the lead-up to the vote. As the Proud Boys are one of the most active and violent far-right groups in the country, an increase in political violence, and especially violence against the communities that the group targets, would likely follow.