Regional Overview
Africa
December 2023

Burkina Faso and Mali: Fatality numbers surge amid large-scale militant attacks and military mass-atrocities

Armed confrontations between Islamist militants and state forces intensified in December, with 79 armed clashes taking place in 15 regions of Burkina Faso and Mali, resulting in over 550 reported fatalities. In seven insurgent offensives, fighters captured large quantities of weapons and ammunition. According to al-Qaeda’s Sahelian branch Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), two of the attacks in Solle and Fada N’Gourma in Burkina Faso were in response to military offensives and massacres of civilians that took place between 11 and 22 December, in which over 300 civilians reportedly were killed.¹X @SimNasr, 28 December 2023; X @SimNasr, 28 December 2023 In an attack on Dangoumani in the Houet province, reports point to soldiers killing over 30 civilians. In Mali, military and Wagner forces reportedly killed at least 27 people in Gathi-Loumo, Mopti Region. These events contributed to the last quarter of 2023 being the deadliest quarter recorded by ACLED in the Central Sahel countries since the beginning of the crisis in 2012.

Back to Map

Burundi: State forces engage in deadly border clashes with rebel groups

Fatal clashes escalated last month in Burundi between state forces and rebel groups near both the Congolese and Rwandan borders. Violence involving RED-Tabara, a Burundian rebel group based across the Congolese border, resulted in at least 34 reported fatalities in Bubanza and Bujumbura Rural provinces. RED-Tabara and state forces traded accusations over a fatal attack on civilians in the border area of Gatumba on 22 December.²X @Red_Tabara, 29 December 2023 Battles also broke out between military forces and a Rwandan rebel group, the National Liberation Front (FLN), in the Kibira forest around Gafumbugeti, near the Rwandan border. Fatalities arising from rebel group activity in December were the deadliest since May 2008, during a previous surge of rebel group activity. The recent violence by rebel groups raised tensions with Rwanda after Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye accused the Kigali government of supporting RED-Tabara.³Voice of America, ‘Burundi’s President Says Rwanda Is Backing Rebels Fighting Against His Country,’ 29 December 2023 Since RED-Tabara maintains operational bases in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the violence may serve as further justification for increased troop mobilization to the DRC following the withdrawal of Burundian troops under the East African Community Forces last month.⁴Africa News, ‘DRC: Burundian soldiers leave East African force,’ 11 December 2023

Back to Map

Democratic Republic of Congo: Violence targeting civilians rises during December elections

A turbulent Congolese election period, which resulted in a second term for incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi,⁵The Economist, ‘A thumping win for Tshisekedi in Congo’s election raises eyebrows,’ 4 January 2023 saw civilian targeting rise 54% in December compared to the month prior. Unidentified gunmen and rioters associated with political parties engaged in violence targeted at political party supporters and journalists, as well as election workers from the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI). Violence targeting civilians rose before election day on 20 December, reaching a peak on 15 December, and violence continued after the polls closed. Civilians were the target of violence across an increasingly widespread number of territories in DRC, continuing a three-month trend of broadening dispersion of violence targeting civilians. The majority of violence targeting civilians took place in the eastern provinces — rising sharply in North and South Kivu provinces last month — where armed groups such as the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and Cooperative for Development of Congo (CODECO) also continued to attack civilian populations.

Back to Map

Mozambique: At least 13 killed by Islamic State Mozambique attacks on state forces

Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) undertook three simultaneous operations on 26 December in Macomia district, Cabo Delgado province, killing at least 13 soldiers of the Mozambique Defense Armed Forces (FADM). Islamic State (IS) claimed to have killed nine at Mucojo village on the Macomia coast, and three more during an ambush on troops fleeing from Mucojo to Macomia town. Concurrently, FADM repelled an attack on its outpost at nearby Pangane village, where IS claimed to have killed one soldier.⁶IS announced both claims through its social channels, which ACLED researchers regularly monitor. However, the attack led FADM to pull back from Mucojo and Pangane. Despite FADM operating in the area where the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) and Rwanda Security Forces (RSF) are stationed to the north of Macomia and provide occasional support, ISM maintains some freedom of movement along the Macomia coast. For example, ISM has deployed explosives along the coast, curtailing the movement of state forces, and has developed trading relationships with residents.⁷Zitamar News, ‘Insurgents try to win hearts and minds in Cabo Delgado,’ 10 February 2023 Political violence across Cabo Delgado in 2023 fell by almost 70% compared to 2022, following an intervention by the RSF and SAMIM the previous year. Nevertheless, ISM’s resilience on Macomia’s coast is a concern as SAMIM is set to withdraw by July 2024.

Back to Map

Nigeria: Military airstrikes kill at least 85 civilians

On 3 December, two deadly airstrikes by Nigerian military forces hit Tudun Biri, Kaduna state, reportedly killing at least 85 civilians. The first missile hit civilians gathered for religious celebrations, and the second hit the same location, killing civilians who had arrived to help the victims of the first strike.⁸Human Rights Watch, ‘Nigeria: Erroneous Military Airstrike,’ 7 December 2023 Nigerian military and government had contradictory reactions; the army called the strike an accident, while other defense officials claimed the strike targeted insurgents operating in Tudun Biri.⁹Timothy Obiezu, ‘Varying Accounts of Nigerian Village Bombing Spark Debate About Cover-up,’ Voice of America, 8 December 2023 The December bombing was the deadliest airborne attack on civilians since January 2017, when an airstrike by Nigerian air forces reportedly killed at least 234 civilians in Kala Balge, Borno state. Military airstrikes without known armed group targets that hit civilians make up 6% of the total air and drone strikes in 2023 and nearly 10% of the total estimated fatalities. The deadly strike in Tudun Biri was the seventh air or drone strike event of 2023 with no known armed group targeted — part of a rising number of aerial bombardments with only civilian casualties recorded each year since 2020. Air force bombings without known armed group targets have taken place primarily in the northern states of Nigeria, likely intended to hit armed bandit groups and Islamist insurgents. The overall number of air and drone strikes has not risen in proportion with those events with solely civilian fatalities. These rising aerial attacks on civilians may reflect a concerning issue surrounding the military identification of legitimate targets and a growing disregard for civilian casualties.

Back to Map

Sudan: The RSF captures strategic locations in al-Jazirah state

In December, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) initiated extensive offensives against the military (SAF) in al-Jazirah state, capturing Wad Madani and several other locations throughout the state. Wad Madani, the capital of the agricultural al-Jazirah state and one of the most populous cities in Sudan,¹⁰Estimates vary following the outbreak of war, some claiming Wad Madani as the second most populous city which may account for the displaced population after April. See World Population Review, ‘Population of Cities in Sudan 2024,’ Accessed 5 January 2024 and Mat Nashed, ‘‘No way to leave’: Sudan paramilitary traps civilians in breadbasket state,’ Al Jazeera, 29 December 2023 served as the initial destination for hundreds of thousands of refugees after the war began in April 2023.¹¹Khalid Abdelaziz, ‘Thousands flee as battle for Sudan’s Wad Madani opens up new front,’ Reuters, 17 December 2023 During the offensives in al-Jazirah state, the RSF also raped, killed, and robbed civilians.¹²Mat Nashed, ‘‘No way to leave’: Sudan paramilitary traps civilians in breadbasket state,’ Al Jazeera, 29 December 2023 Since the outbreak of the conflict, political violence had remained comparatively low in al-Jazirah state — averaging around five events per month— with relatively few clashes recorded in the northern part of the state. In December, however, ACLED records more than 60 political violence events, reportedly resulting in at least 96 fatalities and more than 200,000 people fleeing from al-Jazirah state.¹³United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, ‘Sudan Humanitarian Update,’ 4 January 2024 The territorial gains by the RSF in al-Jazirah state followed a strong advance in November when the RSF took control of four out of five states in Darfur.

Back to Map