Russia has exploited Ukrainian ammunition shortages due to the six-month delay in the approval of US military aid, sluggish deliveries from the EU, and the disarray caused by the failed Ukrainian summer 2023 counter-offensive to press its advantage in the skies. In October 2023, Russian forces launched an ongoing counter-attack along the frontline with a particular focus on the Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka in a salient north of Donetsk city, which they seized in mid-February having achieved aerial superiority in the area.1Grace Mappes, et al., ‘Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment,’ Institute for the Study of War, 17 February 2024
The increased tempo of Russian airstrikes at Ukraine’s hinterlands since late December 2023 likely further depleted Ukraine’s stock of interceptor missiles. ACLED data suggest that Russian airstrikes increased by 22% in January, a further 31% in February, and an additional 11% in March. ACLED also records corresponding increases in Russia’s targeting of civilians in Ukraine during air raids — the number of events rose by 11% in January, 50% in February, and a further 19% in March (see graph below). In the first three weeks of April, Russian airstrikes killed at least 65 civilians across Ukraine, more than twice the monthly average of the preceding 12 months.
The scarcity of air defenses allowed Russia to resume targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure — ostensibly in response to Ukraine’s targeting of oil infrastructure deep within Russia and aiming to disrupt domestic weapon production2Reuters, ‘Russia says it hits Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and gas production facilities,’ 31 March 2024; Reuters, ‘Putin: Russia had to attack Ukraine energy sites in response to Kyiv’s strikes,’ 11 April 2024 — but also likely meant to enable Russian aircraft to act more freely along the frontline. Occurring at the end of the cold season in Ukraine, the renewed strikes are wreaking more havoc than Russia’s October 2022 to March 2023 campaign, which focused on power distribution networks. The strikes between 21 March and 11 April severely damaged multiple thermal and hydroelectric power plants across Ukraine, knocking out thermal power generation in the Kharkiv region (see map below).3Sarah Rainsford, ‘Ukraine’s power plants at the mercy of Russian missiles,’ BBC, 15 April 2024 The 11 April strike destroyed the Trypilska thermal power plant south of Kyiv, one of the largest in the country powering three regions in central Ukraine.4Hanna Arhipova, ‘Massive attack destroys one of Ukraine’s largest power plants,’ Associated Press, 12 April 2024 The resulting blackouts are contributing to civilian hardship as the country braces itself for further escalation of the war in the coming months.
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Visuals produced by Ana Marco.
