Sun Belt showdown: Exploring swing state dynamics in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia

16 May 2024

The United States is bracing for a contentious 2024 election cycle. As experts warn of possible political violence, ACLED has relaunched the US Crisis Monitor to track what happens.

Following up on ACLED’s April report focusing on the swing states, this month we dive into Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia to examine how mobilization patterns in each of these states could affect the run-up to and outcome of the 2024 presidential election. These three states are relative newcomers to the limelight that comes with swing state status. Both Arizona and Georgia were long considered Republican strongholds, with GOP candidates winning 16 of the last 18 presidential elections in Arizona and eight of the last 10 elections in Georgia. While Nevada has not been as reliably red in recent years, narrow victories by Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, along with recent polling, suggest the state may witness a close election in 2024 as well.¹ All three states are also pursuing charges against individuals involved in a conspiracy to appoint ‘fake electors’ to cast their Electoral College ballots for former President Donald Trump in seven swing states.

Despite being especially contentious at the ballot box, these ‘battleground’ states are not starkly different from the rest of the country in terms of heightened violence and demonstrations. The popular outcry sparked by the Israel-Gaza conflict and its handling by the Biden administration has prompted a wave of student protests around the country, albeit at lower levels in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia than in other parts of the country. Likewise, militia activity, which had escalated in previous years in response to racial justice protests and in opposition to abortion and LGBTQ+ rights, has recently subsided. While local officials and election workers in swing states are facing an increasing volume of threats and harassment² — a testament to these states’ significance to the vote in November — demonstration themes and militia activity reflect a blend of local and national issues, much like we see across the country.

Arizona

Republicans have long held a firm grasp on Arizona elections, but Biden’s win in 2020 and a changing electorate have made the Grand Canyon State a hotly contested battleground for the upcoming election. While many swing states have seen increases in population, Arizona’s population growth has been drastic, with projections suggesting that Arizona’s most populous county and the fourth-most populous in the US, Maricopa, will add to its 4.4 million population by more than 300,000 more residents for the November election.³ There have been demographic shifts in other key states across the country, but pollsters have noted that the growth in Arizona, in part because of the razor-thin margin of victory — just over 10,000 votes — make any new voters consequential to the upcoming election.⁴ Furthermore, Maricopa County is also home to more than 60% of Arizona’s population and has a higher-than-average percentage of residents who are immigrants to America.⁵

The large population of immigrants in Arizona suggests that immigration will likely be a key theme at the ballot box in November. While many Americans rate the economy as the most important issue, those in Arizona said that immigration was the top issue, with nearly a third of voters saying it was the most important issue.⁶

The public significance of immigration is reflected in its role in driving mobilization. In line with a nationwide trend, however, mobilization spurred by the Israel-Gaza conflict has become the paramount driver of protest activity in the state, overshadowing both labor and immigration issues. Pro-Palestine demonstrations were reported in at least six distinct locations across Arizona and account for 41% of all reported demonstrations in the state since October 2023 (see graph below). While recent protest activity may not perfectly map onto polling results, it does follow recent trends of increased action around the Israel-Gaza conflict and American voters’ opinions on how US politicians have handled it.

Additionally, Arizona recently gained national attention after a state judge lifted an injunction blocking the enforcement of an 1864 abortion ban, which could allow doctors who perform abortions to be prosecuted.⁷ The decision sparked the most abortion-related protest activity in the state since Roe v. Wade was overturned in June 2022. While the state Legislature recently narrowly repealed the law, there may be a period of time that the ban could be enforced before the repeal takes effect.⁸ This increased attention on the issue, paired with the upcoming anniversary of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision by the US Supreme Court, could point to an increase in abortion-related demonstration activity in the coming months.

Arizona is also no stranger to far-right activity, often in connection with immigration. Arizona has a long history of anti-immigration border militias, most notably the group Veterans on Patrol. This anti-government extremist group, established in 2015, has become less active in recent years as its leader, who has promoted various QAnon conspiracies, faces increased legal pressure following a series of arrests from 2018 onward.⁹ Veterans on Patrol has been the most active militia in the state and accounted for 31% of all far-right activity in Arizona since January 2023, mostly operating near the US-Mexico border (see map below).

Alongside immigration, other themes have also encouraged mobilization in the far-right universe. Arizona has been in the top 10 states for pro-gun rights rallies in the country since 2020. While such rallies are not exclusive to the far right, certain groups — including the Proud Boys — have established a durable presence in the state. In one of the most significant rallies of 2024, an Arizona chapter of the Proud Boys co-sponsored a pro-gun rights rally at the Arizona Capitol in Phoenix in partnership with College Republicans United, a group that has promoted antisemitic materials.¹⁰

Elections may also serve as a catalyst for mobilization. In Arizona, local ‘Preparedness Teams,’ spearheaded by the Yavapai County chapter, form a network of far-right organizations engaged in election monitoring that voters’ rights groups have accused of intimidation at the ballot box.¹¹ Some candidates have also been accused of using inflammatory rhetoric, which could provoke violence before the election. For example, Republican candidate Kari Lake called for her supporters to arm themselves for the election season, prompting Democratic Senator Mark Kelly to warn against her dangerous message.¹² Election workers in Arizona also face a rise in death threats fueled by false claims of planned election fraud, which have prompted many officials to resign from their positions in recent months.¹³ In addition to the rhetoric around election fraud and misinformation surrounding the election results, an Arizona grand jury recently indicted 18 individuals, including high-profile former Trump staffers Mark Meadows and Rudy Giuliani, for their roles in the ‘fake electorate’ plot.¹⁴ In an effort to protect election workers, officials have attempted to rebuild trust with voters by implementing measures to increase transparency, such as ballot tracking measures and ‘ask me anything’ town hall meetings with the public. Officials hope these measures will help quell election misinformation and protect poll workers in November.

Nevada

While Democratic candidates recently won the state, Nevada was reliably Republican between the late 1960s and into the early 2000s, setting the stage for the state to be a battleground state yet again this election cycle. In addition to being one of the fastest-growing states, the diverse population makes Nevada an important state to watch for the upcoming election.¹⁵ Further, like Wisconsin, nearly a third of Nevada’s voters are registered independents, making nonpartisan voters the majority of registered voters in the state.¹⁶ Nonpartisan voters are driven, in part, by their dissatisfaction with both major parties, a hurdle Trump and Biden will have to clear to succeed in November.¹⁷

Demonstrations have been relatively quiet in Nevada since the start of the year, which could be in part linked to voter demographics, as nonpartisans are less likely than their partisan counterparts to be politically engaged.¹⁸ Despite the recent lack of activity, however, Nevada’s recent history with extremism and misinformation during the midterm election cycle may be an indication of what is to come in November. For example, after the last election, armed Trump supporters organized rallies to protest the election results.¹⁹ Further, intimidation tactics, such as using night vision goggles to watch election workers count votes during the primary in 2022, have been reported in Nevada and are a stark reminder of the potential for threats election workers have received in recent years.²⁰

However, despite Nevada’s history with election deniers and violence around the election, the tides may be turning in the Silver State. In November 2022, Jim Marchant, a Nevada assemblyman who ran on a platform baselessly claiming that the 2020 election was stolen from former President Donald Trump, was defeated in the race for secretary of state, a role that oversees voting in Nevada.²¹ Nevada has also been held up as the model for battling state election interference.²² In particular, a report from the Brennan Center for Justice praised Nevada’s increased protections for election workers, with legislation that makes doxxing election workers a felony and adds protection against harassment.²³

Georgia

Georgia, like Arizona, has long been a Republican stronghold. When Biden won the state in 2020, it was the first Democratic victory in Georgia since 1992. The 2020 election was pivotal, not only securing Biden’s presidency but also flipping control of the Senate, with the election of two Democratic senators. The narrow margin of victory in 2020 suggests another close race ahead. Demographic shifts, particularly in areas like Cobb County, which is part of Atlanta’s metropolitan area, and others like Fulton and DeKalb counties, are significant. These counties saw increases in nonwhite voter turnout in 2020 that helped deliver Democratic victories in the state. If the trend continues for 2024, nonwhite voters could account for a significant voter bloc, as over 70% of DeKalb County’s population is nonwhite.²⁴ Additionally, Georgia’s population has been bolstered by an estimated 13,500 Democratic voters due to increased migration, potentially influencing the outcome in 2024.

Recent polling suggests that many in the Peach State are concerned about the state of the economy and immigration.²⁵ These findings are in alignment with what many Americans are concerned with, as the economy and immigration are often cited as the highest concerns for voters. However, Georgia stands out in that nearly 25% of Georgians are concerned with preserving democracy, according to a Marist Institute for Public Opinion poll conducted in early March.²⁶ The poll also suggests that while concerns over preserving democracy are top of mind for 40% of Democrats, 32% of independents also indicated that it was their top concern. Georgians’ concerns with preserving democracy could be fueled by the ongoing court cases surrounding election fraud allegations and the fake elector scheme in the 2020 presidential contest.

Unlike other states, no single issue has monopolized protest mobilization in Georgia. Despite an uptick in demonstrations related to the Israel-Gaza conflict since October 2023, which is shared with many states, protest activity in Georgia has for years centered uniquely on the ‘Stop Cop City,’ a campaign demanding a stop to the construction of a new police training facility outside of Atlanta (see graph below).²⁷ Despite other states joining in solidarity protests, Georgia has, understandably, become a flashpoint for these rallies, with at least 73 protest events recorded since January 2023 in Atlanta and other cities. Yet, in recent years, Georgia showed a significant potential for mobilization. The state was among the most active during the racial justice protests of 2020, with mobilization continuing well into 2023. Indeed, Georgia ranks eighth nationwide for demonstrations in support of the Black Lives Matter movement since January 2023, many of which were sparked by the death of a 29-year-old Black man, Tyre Nichols, in Memphis, Tennessee, at the hands of the police.

Race-related protests were a major driver of mobilization for extremist groups in Georgia. In 2020 and 2021, members showed up in arms at protest rallies, intimidating or provoking demonstrators. Previous ACLED analysis found that Georgia was at a high risk of extremist activity surrounding the 2020 election cycle, with several groups, including the III%ers, the Georgia Militia, and the 229 Militia, especially active in the state. Far-right activity has since subsided, with only 36 events recorded by ACLED between January 2023 and April 2024 Among the most active groups is the Goyim Defense League (GDL), a loose organization whose members share antisemitic, anti-LGBTQ+, and white supremacist ideologies,²⁸ mostly active in Macon, Athens, and other northern areas of Georgia, including Atlanta (see map below). The GDL group has been responsible for distributing fliers in several neighborhoods and outside of synagogues, using antisemitic slurs, and displaying antisemitic messages over an interstate overpass.²⁹ Although many extremist groups may appear to be dormant, they continue to be present in the state and could be mobilized by a call to action around the election.

Round Up

University encampments demand divestment from Israel

A wave of university encampments demanding institutional divestment from companies linked to Israel sprung up across the country beginning in late April, following an encampment on the Columbia University campus set up on 17 April.³⁰ Though police intervened on Columbia’s campus the next day to arrest more than 100 demonstrators, similar demonstrations sprung up across the country, resulting in the arrests of more than 1,600 students before the end of April.³¹

Legal decisions on gender-affirming care

On 15 April, the US Supreme Court granted an emergency request allowing Idaho’s temporary reinstatement of a law banning gender-affirming care for minors.³² However, this decision was made on the basis of whether a lower court’s blockage of the law was appropriate, rather than as a ruling on gender-affirming care directly. Meanwhile, on 29 April 2024, a federal appellate court in Richmond ruled that state health care plans must pay for gender-affirming surgeries, marking the first time a court has made such a ruling in the United States. Writing for the majority, Judge Roger Gregory called West Virginia’s restrictions on gender-affirming surgeries “obviously discriminatory.”³³ The decision is expected to be appealed to the US Supreme Court

Tennessee allows teachers to carry guns in school

On 24 April, Tennessee Governor Bill Lee signed a law allowing teachers and staff to bring firearms to schools.³⁴ The law, which went into effect immediately, requires armed staff to undergo 40 hours of training, after which they will be allowed to carry handguns in classrooms. Schools will not be required to notify parents about which staff or teachers have firearms, nor where they are stored. Tennessee has seen the most demonstrations in favor of gun control of any state since January 2023, largely as a response to the 27 March 2023 shooting at a Nashville school.

Florida’s Supreme Court upholds six-week abortion ban

On 1 April 2024, Florida’s Supreme Court upheld a ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, thereby allowing a six-week abortion ban to go into effect on 1 May.³⁵ Governor Ron Desantis signed a six-week abortion ban in 2023 but specified that the bill would be placed on hold until the 15-week ban — which passed a year earlier — cleared legal challenges. The ruling makes Florida one of the most restrictive states in the US when it comes to abortion access.³⁶ In a separate ruling, however, the court also approved the wording of a proposed amendment to the state’s constitution that would protect access to abortion in Florida. As a result, Floridians will vote on whether to uphold the amendment in November, when the US general election is held. Though the amendment needs at least 60% approval to pass, President Joe Biden’s campaign suggested that Florida was “winnable” if the president campaigns on the issue of abortion.³⁷ Since January 2023, Florida has been the state with both the most demonstrations against access to abortion and the most demonstrations in favor, though pro-access demonstrations have outnumbered anti-abortion demonstrations more than two to one.

For more, see ACLED April Regional Overview for the US & Canada.

Visuals produced by Ciro Murillo.