Regional Overview
Africa
June 2024

Posted: 5 July 2024

In this Regional Overview

DRC: Civilian deaths from targeted attacks by the ADF spike in North Kivu
Burkina Faso: Heavy military losses lead to suspicions of a potential coup
Kenya: Rising grassroots anti-tax demonstrations against the 2024 Finance Bill
Nigeria: Violence surges in Niger state
South Sudan: Deadly violence rises in Nyirol county, Jonglei State

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Democratic Republic of the Congo: Civilian deaths from targeted attacks by the ADF spike in North Kivu

In June, attacks on civilians by the Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) escalated in North Kivu province. The number of reported fatalities resulting from targeted attacks on civilians increased by more than five times compared to the previous month. The violence prompted concern from the African Union, which called on the Congolese authorities and neighboring states to take action against the escalation.¹ ACLED records 10 ADF attacks against civilians that each resulted in more than 10 reported fatalities. Several cases involved people being tied up and executed. Two incidents in Beni territory alone accounted for 84 deaths — almost 40% of the more than 220 fatalities perpetrated by the group in June. The military response to this insecurity has forced the ADF to operate in smaller groups,² but it may also be pushing the ADF southward. Last month, ACLED records the ADF involved in violence in places that indicate the group is expanding southward in North Kivu, likely capitalizing on the military focus on the M23 conflict. Despite the attention on M23, the ADF remains the most deadly armed group for civilians in the DRC.

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Burkina Faso: Heavy military losses lead to suspicions of a potential coup

Deadly clashes between the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and military forces continued in June, with battles involving JNIM leading to over 400 reported fatalities. In the deadliest event, JNIM clashed with military forces in Mansila, Yagha province, on 11 June, resulting in 114 soldiers reportedly killed. This was the deadliest single incident of the month and the deadliest battle since August 2021. In addition, over 250 civilians were reported to have died at the hands of insurgents, army troops, and auxiliary forces, including the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP). JNIM was responsible for nearly 80% of the civilian targeting. June saw the highest number of civilians killed by targeted JNIM attacks in a single month since May 2023. These developments, combined with reports of heavy gunfire near the presidential palace and inside a military base and the state television headquarters in the capital, Ouagadougou,³ have spurred rumors of dissent and a potential mutiny within the military.⁴

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Kenya: Rising grassroots anti-tax demonstrations against the 2024 Finance Bill

Violence related to the movement against the 2024 Finance Bill escalated in the second half of June. It culminated on 25 June when demonstrators stormed Parliament minutes after the bill was approved, setting vehicles and parts of the parliament building on fire and clashing with police forces.⁵ Kenyan police shot and killed more than 10 people and injured over 30 demonstrators.⁶ On the following day, President William Ruto declared that he would not sign the bill.⁷ In June, ACLED records over 150 demonstrations against the 2024 Finance Bill. While most tax-related gatherings remained peaceful, 35% of these events turned violent, with security forces intervening in 7% of the cases. Unlike past anti-tax demonstration movements in Kenya — such as those in 2023 spearheaded by opposition leader Raila Odinga — the 2024 anti-tax demonstrations have not been led by politicians and have drawn support across political divides. Instead, grassroots civil society and youth used social media and online platforms, using the popular hashtags #OccupyParliament and #RejectFinanceBill2024 to mobilize activists.⁸ However, the victory of the grassroots movements over the bill did not stop mobilization, as demonstrations continued in the following days and in early July.⁹

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Nigeria: Violence surges in Niger state

Violence in Niger state surged last month, reaching the highest level recorded since May 2022. Over half of the violence took place in Shiroro Local Government Area, where armed bandits and suspected Boko Haram militants carried out over 10 attacks on civilians. In early June, the militants moved from Benin to Shiroro’s Kainja National Park¹⁰ where, according to local residents, they forcibly recruited and threatened civilians who refused to join militant ranks.¹¹ Civilians who attempted to return to their villages in search of food were often attacked and killed.¹² According to Nigerian authorities, Boko Haram seeks to take advantage of the rugged forest terrain of Shiroro, a mountainous area situated along the border with Kaduna state, to stage attacks against security forces and civilians “without fear of being caught,” just like they did in the Sambisa Forest of Borno state.¹³ In addition to militant violence, armed bandits and cattle rustlers also raided several farming communities in Shiroro, killing and abducting civilians.

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South Sudan: Deadly violence rises in Nyirol county, Jonglei State

In June, clashes between cattle raiders from Greater Pibor administrative area and local armed groups guarding cattle in areas of Nyirol county resulted in a string of fatal violence lasting five days. The sequential battles contributed to the most fatal violence in Nyirol county since February 2020, when armed raiders from the Murle ethnic group carried out several deadly attacks. In addition, last month in Nyirol county gunmen from Baliet county carried out attacks against civilians, described as revenge attacks that followed violence a few days earlier in Baliet.¹⁴ Collectively, these developments led to a spike in violent events in Nyirol county compared to last month and made up for more than nearly 60% of the total political violence throughout Jonglei state in June.

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Methodology

See the Codebook and the User Guide for an overview of ACLED’s core methodology. For additional documentation, check the Knowledge Base. Region-specific methodology briefs can be accessed below.

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Regional Special Projects

For additional resources and in-depth updates on the latest political violence and protest trends, check our local observatories for Mozambique and Ethiopia, as well as our special Nigeria Election Violence Tracker project.