Pride and protest: A downward trend in LGBTQ+ mobilization this June
23 July 2024
The United States is bracing for a contentious 2024 election cycle. As experts warn of possible political violence, ACLED has relaunched the US Crisis Monitor to track what happens.
July marks the end of Pride month, a month dedicated to celebrating and recognizing the LGTBQ+ community. Traditionally, Pride is commemorated in June and includes parades or marches and street festivals. It is a time for members of the LGBTQ+ community and their allies to celebrate and come together. This longstanding tradition also often brings with it increased protest activity from those within the queer community calling for action, as well as anti-LGBTQ+ demonstrations at Pride events. Because it occurs every June, Pride provides a comparison point across years to better understand shifts in protest trends. Notably, although there was an increased amount of anti-LGBTQ+ activities between 2022 and 2023, this year has been remarkably quiet. This report looks at the trends and provides potential explanations for the steep decline in activity in 2024.
The emergence of Pride month as a catalyst of mobilization
While Pride month was not federally recognized until 1999, the first Pride march occurred in major cities across the United States in 1970 to commemorate the one-year anniversary of the Stonewall Riots.1Brooke Sopelsa and Isabela Espadas Barros Leal, ‘What is LGBTQ Pride month and how did it start?,’ NBCU Academy, 3 June 2024 Prior to Stonewall, there were numerous gay rights activist groups, mostly created in the wake of the Second World War and in response to the McCarthy era; however, Stonewall marked a turning point in the LGBTQ+ movement.2Colleen Walsh, ‘Stonewall then and now,’ The Harvard Gazette, 27 June 2019 The event started as a police raid on the Stonewall Inn in New York City’s Greenwich Village. Police raids on gay bars were common practice at the time as many operated without liquor licenses. As police interrogated Stonewall patrons and arrested those who were in violation of New York’s ‘cross-dressing law,’ a crowd of hundreds gathered outside the bar. While accounts vary as to the exact moment the confrontation turned violent, the patrons resisted police through the night, violence escalated, and protests continued into the following week.3Library of Congress,‘The Stonewall Uprising of 1969,’ 28 June Stonewall, and the protests that followed, helped ignite the gay rights movement as activists began to demand change to systems of oppression.4Tom Geoghegan, ‘Stonewall: a riot that changed millions of lives,’ BBC, 17 June 2019
In many ways, Pride has always been deeply connected to protest and mobilization activity. For opponents of the LGBTQ+ movement, Pride festivals have long been an opportunity for counter-protests and even anti-LGBTQ+ violence in the US and around the world.5Hannah Allam, ‘Pride events targeted in surge of anti-LGBTQ threats, violence,’ The Washington Post, 17 June 2022 Officials routinely issue warnings of heightened threat levels to promote vigilance during Pride month.6Derek M. Norman, ‘What’s Behind the Security Warnings for Pride Events,’ The New York Times, 21 May 2024 The combined history of mobilization, and visibility of counter-protests, makes Pride month a hotbed for political activities, thus making it ideal for understanding trends around conflict across time.
Recent trends
Pride month has unsurprisingly driven consistently heightened levels of mobilization in support of LGBTQ+ rights, accounting for more than a fifth of all such demonstrations between 2020 and 2023. At the same time, these demonstrations have regularly coalesced around other drivers. Pride events in 2022 turned into impromptu protest events in support of abortion rights following the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned Roe v. Wade. Because the court ruled right before many of the country’s largest Pride events,7Matt Lavietes, ‘After Roe v. Wade reversal, Pride parades may resemble protest marches of decades past,’ NBC News, 25 June 2022 many parades included protesters who used the opportunity to show support for abortion access. Dobbs may have sparked further mobilization for reasons more closely linked to LGBTQ+ rights, as the decision left many wondering if the Supreme Court would use the precedent to argue against other protections, particularly to same-sex marriage. In his concurring opinion, Justice Clarence Thomas suggested that the court should reconsider many past decisions, citing both Lawrence v. Texas (which established rights for private sexual acts between consenting adults) and Obergefell v. Hodges (which established the right to same-sex marriage).
In contrast, anti-LGBTQ+ demonstrations were a rare occurrence across the US before 2022, including during Pride month. There were only six anti-LGBTQ+ demonstration events in 2020 and 54 in 2021, compared to 180 in 2022 and 233 in 2023 (see graph below). An uptick in anti-LGBTQ+ demonstrations followed the Dobbs decision.8Chelsia Rose Marcius, Téa Kvetenadze, and Lola Fadulu, ‘Thousands Protest in New York After Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade,’ New York Times, 24 June 2022 In June 2022, ACLED records 31 anti-LGBTQ+ demonstrations, including five riots, with anti-LGBTQ+ riots accounting for over a quarter of all riots during the same period. Reports of extremists breaking up Pride events, such as a drag queen story hour in California,9Madeleine Carlisle, ‘Right-Wing Groups Target Pride Events Amid Rising Anti-LGBTQ Rhetoric,’ Time, 16 June 2022 led some Pride organizers to cancel or change plans over concern and threats of violence.
Further, 2022 saw the highest number of reported anti-LGBTQ+ hate crimes since the FBI started tracking these statistics in 1991,10Brooke Migdon, ‘FBI crime statistics show anti-LGBTQ hate crimes on the rise,’ The Hill, 16 October, 2023 and an increase of more than 19% between 2021 and 2022. Given these numbers and the increase in violence found at Pride events in 2022, many were prepared for 2023 to outpace mobilization found the previous year. Indeed, anti-LGBTQ+ events increased from 31 events in 2022 to 67 events in 2023. At the same time, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center, the number of active anti-LGBTQ+ hate groups grew to record levels in 2023.11Southern Poverty Law Center, ‘The Year in Hate & Extremism 2023: Decoding the Plan to Undo Democracy,’ 2024, p.6 These trends, coupled with a drastic increase in anti-LGBTQ+ legislation across the country12Annette Choi, ‘Record number of anti-LGBTQ bills were introduced in 2023,’ CNN, 22 January 2024 and vocal backlash from conservatives over corporate sponsorship of Pride events,13Ayesha Rascoe and Lennon Sherburne, ‘Companies pull back from Pride campaigns after backlash, and threats toward employees,’ NPR, 28 May 2023 shined a light on a wave of rising anti-LGBTQ+ sentiment in the US.
Given the increase in anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric, violence, and legislation in recent years, the lead-up to Pride 2024 seemed notably quiet. Indeed, there has been a steady decline in anti-LGBTQ+ events since June 2023. While June 2023 accounted for 67 events out of 233 total anti-LGBTQ+ events throughout the year, this June saw only 10 events, which accounted for under 5% of all anti-LGBTQ+ activity in the past year. However, Pride events did attract other forms of mobilization this year. Specifically, there have been several reports of pro-Palestine events held during Pride. In some cases, protesters blocked parade routes and displayed signs with slogans such as “No Pride in Genocide.”14Matt Lavietes, ‘Israel-Hamas war protests have disrupted Pride marches across the U.S.,’NBC News, 28 June 2024 However, in other instances, such as Denver’s annual Pride, protestors were welcomed on stage, where the emcee recognized the protestors and others discussed the longstanding history of Pride and protest.15Paolo Zialcita, ‘Pro-Palestinian protesters join Denver’s Pride Parade, take over PrideFest main stage,’ CPR News, 23 June 2024
Declining mobilization: An expected outcome?
Given the steady increase in anti-LGBTQ+ activity from 2020 to 2023, it may be surprising that this mobilization appears to have faltered thus far in 2024. Anti-LGBTQ+ legislation has also taken an unexpected turn: Though a similar amount of anti-LGBTQ+ bills were introduced in state governments across the country in 2024 as in 2022 and 2023, only a fraction were enacted, in contrast with previous years.16Ryan Thoreson, ‘As Fewer Anti-LGBTQ Bills Pass, The Fight Gets Harder,’ Human Rights Watch, 27 June 2024 Thus, a decline in anti-LGBTQ+ demonstration activity has accompanied a similar reduction in state and federal anti-LGBTQ+ legislation.
However, analysts have varying explanations for these seemingly related developments. Some suggest that a drop in anti-LGBTQ+ activity reflects reduced urgency around an anti-LGBTQ+ agenda, largely because so much of this agenda was accomplished through the passage of anti-LGBTQ+ — and especially anti-transgender — legislation around the country in 2022 and 2023.17Ryan Thoreson, ‘As Fewer Anti-LGBTQ Bills Pass, The Fight Gets Harder,’ Human Rights Watch, 27 June 2024 Proponents of this explanation suggest that anti-LGBTQ+ sentiment has been normalized in law and society and has, therefore, become a poorer motivator for demonstration activity.
However, a hardline conservative agenda around anti-LGBTQ+ issues has not yet been enacted. Much of the anti-LGBTQ+ legislation proposed over previous years has promoted a specific set of anti-LGBTQ+, and specifically anti-transgender, policies. The most common of these policies include banning gender-affirming care for transgender youth, requiring schools to report students asking to be called a different name to their parents, and preventing transgender students from playing on sports teams or using bathrooms that correspond with their gender identity.18James Factora, ‘A Terrifying 300 Anti-LGBTQ+ Bills Have Already Been Introduced in 2024,’ Them, 19 January 2024 Perhaps most infamously, Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” legislation, which was signed into law in May 2023, prohibits discussion of sexual orientation or gender identity in classrooms (though judicial challenges have significantly weakened this measure).19Melissa Gira Grant, ‘Ron DeSantis’s Anti-LGBTQ Regime Is Crumbling,’ The New Republic, 13 March 2024
Though these policies already have a profound impact on the LGBTQ+ community, conservative politicians and thinkers have routinely called for much more expansive restrictions. For instance, in February 2023, Donald Trump called for a federal definition of “gender” restricted to “male and female” as assigned at birth and, in his Agenda47 manifesto, claimed that the “radical left” had “invented” transgender people “a few years ago.”20Samantha Riedel, ‘Donald Trump Plans to Gut Queer and Trans Rights in a Second Term,’ Them, 17 July 2024 Likewise, the 2025 Presidential Transition Project (also known as Project 2025), an initiative organized by highly influential conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation, promotes baseless claims that “transgender ideology” is linked to pornography and the “sexualization of children,” that gender-affirming care for transgender youth amounts to “child abuse,” and thus that being transgender has “no claim to First Amendment protection.”21The Heritage Foundation, ‘Mandate for Leadership, the Conservative Promise,’ 2023 p. 5 From these writings, it is clear that influential conservative voices hold anti-LGBTQ+ views that extend much further than what has been enacted thus far.
A legislative shift away from anti-LGBTQ+ legislation may therefore represent a strategic move by conservative leaders, resulting in a lower level of anti-LGBTQ+ demonstration activity. Pro-LGBTQ+ activists have been increasingly successful at mobilizing to defeat such legislation, and some have suggested that the anti-LGBTQ+ agenda represents an “overreach” by conservatives that has mobilized legislative and demonstration activity.22April Rubin, ‘Exclusive: Anti-LGBTQ+ legislative agenda momentum slows in U.S.’ Axios, 6 June 2024; Sara Youngblood Gregory, ‘Pride Is Power: How Queer People Are Defeating Anti-LGBTQ Laws,’ Yes! Magazine, 24 June 2024 This explanation seems to match the data, as a drop in successful anti-LGBTQ+ legislation and demonstration activity corresponds with a drop in pro-LGBTQ+ demonstrations. At the same time, Republicans may be reacting to a relatively poor showing in the 2022 midterm elections — though their party manifesto is still openly anti-transgender, it has softened its rhetoric on abortion and same-sex marriage.23Matt Dixon and Vaughn Hillyard, ‘Trump pushes new GOP platform softening party’s positions on abortion and same-sex marriage,’ NBC News, 8 July 2024 Though more extreme anti-transgender policies are popular within a harder core of the conservative base, polling shows that most Americans support protections for LGBTQ+ people and specifically transgender people.24Brandon Wolf, ‘Reality Check: Ahead of First 2024 Presidential Debate, Americans Fed Up With the MAGA Agenda of Division and Bullying,’ Human Rights Watch, 27 June 2024
Another piece of this explanation may come from the shifting activity of extremist groups, who have been outsized participants in anti-LGBTQ+ demonstrations in recent years. These groups have seen a very steep drop in all activity in 2024 compared to previous years, largely due to struggles with leadership following a law enforcement crackdown after the 6 January riots. At the same time, LGBTQ+ groups have prepared more extensively for extremist activity targeting Pride-related events and drag shows.25Western States Center, ‘2024 Pride Advisory Guide,’ June 2024
Each of these explanations contributes to the overall picture. Anti-LGBTQ+ demonstration activity has decreased alongside a decline in successful anti-LGBTQ+ legislation, recent conservative successes in enacting anti-LGBTQ+ policies, a strategic shift away from some anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric during the 2024 election cycle, increased vigilance from the LGBTQ+ community, and a decline in extremist group mobilization. Many of these are temporary phenomena related to the critical November presidential election. As conservative writing like Project 2025 and Agenda47 indicate, many conservatives hope to further strip protections for LGBTQ+ people in the future.
Round Up
Supreme Court procedural rulings allow temporary abortion protections
On 13 June 2024, almost exactly two years since it overturned Roe v. Wade, the US Supreme Court unanimously preserved access to mifepristone, a commonly used abortion medication. This decision was made on the basis that the plaintiffs had not suffered harm from the medication’s availability and thus lacked the legal standing to sue.26Antoinette Radford et al., ‘Supreme Court maintains access to abortion pill in unanimous decision, CNN, 13 June 2024 Because the ruling was made for procedural reasons, the court left the door open for future challenges.27Holly Honderich, ‘Supreme Court rejects challenge to abortion drug mifepristone,’ BBC News, 13 June 2024 On 27 June, the court issued another ruling, this time in a 6-3 split, that temporarily allowed abortions in Idaho to be performed in medical emergencies.28John Kruzel, ‘US Supreme Court allows emergency abortions in Idaho for now,’ Reuters, 27 June 2024 However, this ruling likewise did not decide any underlying legal questions, as the case was again dismissed for procedural reasons related to changes in Idaho’s ban on abortion, as well as a clarification in the Biden administration’s lawsuit, made in the months since the court agreed to hear the case.29Lindsay Whitehurst, ‘The Supreme Court allows emergency abortions in Idaho for now in a limited ruling,’ AP, 28 June 2024 The case may appear before the court again.
Supreme Court rules on two firearms cases
On 14 June 2024, the US Supreme Court ruled that a Trump-era ban on gun stocks, which increase the rate of fire of semiautomatic rifles, is unlawful.30Lawrence Hurley, ‘Supreme Court rules ban on gun bump stocks is unlawful,’ NBC News, 14 June 2024 The ban was instituted following a 2017 mass shooting at a music festival in Las Vegas where a man using gun stock-equipped firearms killed 58 people.31John Fritze, Devan Cole, and Lauren Fox, ‘Supreme Court strikes down Trump-era ban on bump stocks on guns,’ CNN, 14 June 2024 The decision was split 6-3 along the ideological lines separating the court’s left- and right-wing factions. However, one week later, on 21 June, the court upheld a law that bars people with restraining orders related to domestic violence from owning guns. The 8-1 decision saw dissent only from Justice Clarence Thomas, who argued that the ruling violated the Second Amendment of the US Constitution.32Lisa Lambert and Sam Cabral, ‘No guns for domestic abuse suspects, top US court rules,’ BBC News, 21 June 2024 On 25 June, US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy declared gun violence to be a national public health crisis.33Rachel Treisman,’ The surgeon general declared gun violence a public health crisis. What does that do?’ NPR, 25 June 2024
Supreme Court rules that cities can fine and jail homeless people
On 28 June 2024, the US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that cities can enforce laws baring sleeping and camping in public in a case brought by Grants Pass, an Oregon town with a population of under 50,000.34Ella Howard, ‘History Suggests the Supreme Court’s Homelessness Ruling Will Only Make the Problem Worse,’ TIME, 10 July 2024 The ruling was made along ideological lines with dissent from the court’s three left-wing justices. Advocates from the town argue that the ruling upholds strict city regulations that effectively outlaw homelessness, while some local governments contend that previous protections frustrated their response to a growing homelessness crisis.35Jennifer Ludden, ‘The Supreme Court says cities can punish people for sleeping in public places,’ NPR, 25 June 2024; Sam Levin, ‘‘Terrifying and dystopian’: the dark realities of the supreme court’s homelessness decision,’ The Guardian, 29 June 2024
Hunter Biden is convicted of unlawfully possessing a firearm
On 11 June, Hunter Biden, President Joe Biden’s son, was convicted on three federal felony gun charges in Wilmington, Delaware, for lying about his drug use on a federal background check document and for possessing a firearm while addicted to banned narcotics.36Holmes Lybrand, Marshall Cohen, and Hannah Rabinowitz, ‘Hunter Biden found guilty on all counts in gun case,’ CNN, 11 June 2024 The charges came from the 2018 purchase of a revolver. He faces an additional trial for federal tax charges, which is set to be held in September.37Tom Hals, ‘Hunter Biden ends bid for gun retrial after prosecutors explain appeal process,’ Reuters, 9 July 2024 Biden said he would “respect the judicial process” and that he and the first lady are proud of the person their son is today, while the Trump campaign claimed the verdict was “a distraction from the real crimes of the Biden Crime Family.”38Randall Chase et al., ‘President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, is convicted of all 3 felonies in federal gun trial,’ AP, 12 June 2024
Visuals produced by Christian Jaffe.