A disputed presidential election has rekindled Venezuela’s long-lasting political crisis,1Tiziano Breda, ‘A Rigged Election Could Trigger Turmoil in Venezuela,’ Istituto Affari Internazionali, 13 July 2024 sparking a significant increase in demonstration events. On 28 July, electoral authorities announced they had counted 80% of ballots and that incumbent Nicolás Maduro had won with 51.2% of the vote. However, they never published the results. Meanwhile, the opposition has also claimed the victory of its candidate, Edmundo González, with 67% of votes, after publishing paper tallies in an online database that it said represented about 80% of votes.2Associated Press, ‘Little-known paper sheets are key to declaring victory in Venezuela’s election,’ 31 July 2024
The widespread perception of fraud sparked a wave of demonstrations — even before opposition leaders called on people to mobilize to defend the vote. On 29 and 30 July, ACLED records at least 140 demonstrations, turning the last days of July into the most eventful this year (see graph below).
Not only did Venezuelans protest more, but they also projected their frustration more vehemently. While the majority of the demonstrations were peaceful, ACLED records an increase in violent or destructive demonstrations, marking the highest level recorded this year (see graph above). A majority of this activity was property destruction, including setting barricades on fire and tearing down monuments. In response to the unrest, the government has intervened in about 20% of the reported demonstrations, often dispersing crowds with tear gas but also responding with lethal violence. In Carabobo and Miranda, the states recording the most demonstrations, state forces opened fire on demonstrators, reportedly killing two people. Similar to the previous disputed elections, pro-government armed groups known as colectivos, whose activity was declining since 2020, reactivated to support security forces’ crackdown. Of the at least 12 people reportedly killed on 29 and 30 July, local reports claim 10 were shot by alleged members of colectivos.
Since both sides claim victory and Maduro seems unwilling to heed the calls of several international actors to reveal the vote tallies, no resolution of the crisis is in sight. Moreover, Maduro has dubbed protesters as “terrorists”3RFI, ‘Tears flow for victims of Venezuelan election protests,’ 2 August 2024 and accused the opposition of pursuing a coup, raising the risk that the repression will only grow harsher.
Visuals produced by Ciro Murillo.
