With a week to go before the 5 November US elections, political violence by extremist groups looks unlikely according to analysis by Kieran Doyle, US expert at independent non-profit conflict data group ACLED.
Kieran Doyle said: “Our data show that political violence in the run-up to the 2024 elections is a fraction of what we saw in 2020. The indicators for organized political violence, measured by the participation of extremist groups in demonstrations and political violence, are lower this year than popular narratives surrounding the election might suggest. Indeed, ACLED data show low levels of mobilization by extremist groups over the past year, despite several apparent political openings, such as the assassination attempts against former President Donald Trump.
Though the political situation in the US remains volatile, our data do not show the kinds of pre-conditions of already-simmering extremist activity that might lead to a sudden spike in organized political violence. Overall extremist mobilization is barely half as prevalent in 2024 compared to the same period in 2020. However, this year we have seen twice as much mobilization by a subsection of these extremist groups, namely openly white supremacist and neo-Nazi organizations. Of course, political violence committed by individuals — as was the case in both assassination attempts against the former president — remains a concern, and is more difficult to track and predict. Though we must remain vigilant, there are some signs for a more optimistic outlook on the election.”
A detailed analysis can be found here.
Kieran Doyle is available for interviews. For journalists in US time zones, please contact Gina Dorso at +1 631 671 1230 or [email protected]. For journalists in European time zones, please contact Tania Corbett at +44 776 969 5250 or [email protected].
Kieran Doyle is the North America Research Manager at ACLED. As Research Manager, he oversees the North America research team and performs data review and analysis. Kieran holds a master’s degree in Peace, Mediation, and Conflict Studies from Tampere University in Finland and holds a BA in International Relations and French from the University of Denver.
ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) produces the highest quality and most widely used real-time data and analysis on political violence and protest around the world. ACLED is an independent, impartial, international non-profit organization offering precise, disaggregated, locally informed, evidence-based information for use by academics, policymakers, humanitarian practitioners, journalists, corporations, and the wider public.
