993 political violence events
6% decrease compared to last week
64 incidents of violence targeted at civilians
23% increase compared to last week
At least 59 fatalities from civilian targeting
136% increase compared to last week
Key trends
- Russian forces made further advancements in the Pokrovsk district of the Donetsk region, occupying five settlements around Kurakhove.
- ACLED records 25 Russian long-range missile and drone strikes, including in the western regions of Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Volyn, and Zakarpattia. Ukrainian forces also intercepted strikes in at least 33 further instances.
- Russian shelling, missiles, and drones killed at least 59 civilians across Ukraine, almost half of them in the Sumy region. Additionally, at least one civilian was killed in a Ukrainian missile strike on Horlivka in the Donetsk region.
Key events
- 17 Nov. | Sumy – Russian missiles hit a residential quarter in Sumy city, killing 12 civilians and wounding 84 others
- 18 Nov. | Sumy – Russian drones strike a dormitory in Hlukhiv, killing 12 civilians and wounding 13 others
- 18 Nov. | Odesa – Debris from a downed Russian missile kills four civilians and seven police officers in Odesa city
Spotlight: Russian rhetoric escalates following Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles on Russian territory
On 19 November, shortly after United States authorization,1Adam Entous, Eric Schmitt and Julian E. Barnes, ‘Biden Allows Ukraine to Strike Russia With Long-Range U.S. Missiles,’ New York Times, 17 November 2024 Ukrainian forces conducted their first strikes with US-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles on Russia’s internationally recognized territory, hitting a military base in the Bryansk region. The following day, Ukraine also used UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory for the first time, targeting a military command center housing Russian and North Korean officers in the Kursk region. Ukraine has regularly used both ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles against Russian positions in occupied regions of Ukraine, including Crimea, but limited its attacks on Russia itself to shelling and drones.
Russia retaliated to the strikes by escalating its nuclear threats against Ukraine and its supporters. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin signed an amended Russian nuclear doctrine on 19 November – while it previously allowed a nuclear response only to an existential threat to Russia, the amended version allows such a response to attacks with conventional weapons.2Maia Davies, Putin approves changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, BBC, 19 November 2024 Furthermore, on 21 November, Russian forces fired an ‘Oreshnik’ hypersonic nuclear-capable intermediate range missile at Pivdenmash missile producer in Dnipro city, damaging a rehabilitation center for people with disabilities. This was the first time that such a missile had been used in combat conditions. In a televised speech on the same day, Putin blamed Ukraine’s backers for escalating the war and threatened to conduct further ‘Oreshnik’ strikes, including against third countries supplying weapons to Ukraine.3Meduza, ‘We are prepared for any turn of events’ In a televised speech, Vladimir Putin claims a hypersonic missile attack on Ukraine and warns the West of more to come — Full transcript,’ 21 November 2024 Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin and his entourage have frequently threatened a nuclear strike to dissuade Western support of Ukraine.4Associated Press, ‘Putin warns again that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty is threatened,’ 13 March 2024; Guy Faulconbridge, ‘Russia’s Putin issues new nuclear warnings to West over Ukraine,’ Reuters, 22 February 2023
Explore the ACLED Conflict Exposure tool to assess the numbers of people affected by armed violence, disaggregated by locations, time period, and actors involved.
