Regional Overview
Asia-Pacific
November 2024

Posted: 9 December 2024

In this Regional Overview

India: Violence escalates in Manipur
Myanmar: The Kachin Army captures Kachin Special Region 1
Pakistan: Sectarian and militant violence becomes deadlier in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Papua New Guinea: Violence linked to sorcery accusations persists in Bougainville and Enga
Philippines: The toll from clashes between the New People’s Army and government forces mounted
South Korea: The president faces impeachment and calls for resignation

India: Violence escalates in Manipur

Inter-communal violence escalated again in the state of Manipur after weeks of relative calm. Since 2023, Manipur has been engulfed in a cycle of deadly violence between Kuki and Meitei communities over the possible extension of the existing affirmative action regime. The Arambai Tenggol, a Meitei militia, attacked Zairawn village in Jiribam district — predominantly inhabited by the Hmar tribe of the Kuki-Zomi ethnicity — by setting houses on fire and raping and killing a Hmar woman.¹ On 11 November, Hmar assailants burned down Meitei properties and attacked the Borobekra police station and Central Reserve Police Force post in Jakuradhor village in retaliation, claiming that Arambai Tenggol assailants were taking refuge there. During the clash with police, the assailants reportedly killed two Meitei civilians and abducted six others who they later killed. Police reportedly killed at least 10 Hmar assailants, making that the day with the most fatalities in Manipur in 2024.

The discovery of the bodies of the six abductees led to widespread demonstrations and violence in Meitei-majority valley districts. Demonstrators vandalized and set fire to the residences of the chief minister and elected representatives.² ACLED records 14 violent demonstrations in Manipur in November, the highest in one month since May 2023. These developments led to the deployment of additional police forces in Manipur on 12 and 18 November, as well as a curfew and suspension of internet services starting from 16 November. On 14 November, the controversial Armed Forces Special Powers Act of 1958, which grants military forces impunity, was reimposed in the valley districts after its repeal in April 2023.³

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Myanmar: The Kachin Army captures Kachin Special Region 1

The Kachin Independence Organization/Kachin Independence Army (KIO/KIA), a major ethnic armed organization in Kachin state, captured the remaining battalions and towns and took control of the Kachin Special Region 1 by the end of November. The autonomous region — including some areas of Chipwi, Tsawlaw, and Waingmaw townships — was previously controlled by the New Democratic Army-Kachin, a Kachin ethnic militia that signed a truce with the military regime and transformed into a Border Guard Force (BGF) in exchange for economic opportunities and control over the resource-rich region in 2009.⁴ The KIO/KIA captured the last remaining BGF battalion, Battalion 1001, in Hpi Maw village of Chipwi township on 1 November and the final border town, Kan Paik Ti — a strategic location with the third-largest border crossing with China — in late November.

The KIO/KIA’s substantial gains in the region, including rare-earth mining hubs worth billions of US dollars in Chipwi and Pangwa towns,⁵ have allowed the group to exert leverage over China. Since 19 October, China has closed several border crossings with Kachin state in an effort to pressure the KIO/KIA to halt the fighting along the border. Following its capture of the region, the KIO/KIA abolished the regime’s designation of Kachin Special Region 1, claiming that it divides the unity of Kachin people.⁶ The group also announced plans to resume rare-earth mining operations and invited businessmen and investors — likely targeting Chinese companies — to collaborate with them.⁷ Since the KIO/KIA launched its operation in March, ACLED records 82 locations, including towns and battalions, captured by the group in Kachin state.

For more, see ACLED’s recent report, Between cooperation and competition: The struggle of resistance groups in Myanmar.

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Pakistan: Sectarian and militant violence becomes deadlier in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Violence intensified in Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in November with events involving militant and sectarian groups becoming increasingly deadly. On 21 November, Sunni tribal militia groups ambushed a caravan of 200 Shia muslim civilians in Kurram district, a volatile region bordering Afghanistan, killing 47 of the passengers. Despite a ceasefire attempt brokered by the government and tribal leaders to end hostilities, sporadic clashes between sectarian groups continued in the largely autonomous tribal district.⁸ ACLED records 81 violent events between Shia and Sunni groups in 2024, more than double the total recorded for the entirety of last year. These violent events resulted in at least 239 reported fatalities in 2024, with November accounting for over half of these.

Other attacks on security forces also became more lethal in November as militant groups waged sophisticated operations and increasingly resorted to bombings and suicide attacks. On 18 November, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its ally, Lashkar-e-Islam, clashed with military forces performing operations in the Tirah Valley, resulting in 17 reported fatalities. On 19 November, Jabhat Ansar al-Mahdi Khorasan militants, with allies from the TTP breakaway faction Hafiz Gul Bahadur group (TTP-HGB), conducted a joint attack at a security check post, killing 18 militants and security personnel. Infighting between some groups such as the TTP and TTP-HGB — the region’s two largest factions, which hold strongholds in South Waziristan and North Waziristan, respectively, and have distinct tribal affiliations — also resulted in heavy casualties.

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Papua New Guinea: Violence linked to sorcery accusations persists in Bougainville and Enga

Sorcery accusation-related violence (SARV), meaning violent incidents associated with accusations that an individual is involved in practicing sorcery,⁹ continues to be a major concern in Bougainville and Enga regions. In late November, a family of six was executed by community leaders in Bougainville and two women were tortured and burned alive in Enga. The killings in Bougainville occurred after one of the six victims reportedly claimed that he and his family were sorcerers and were responsible for the Pakia village chief’s death.¹⁰ Following these claims, he was detained by those in attendance and held hostage for several days while his home was torched before he and his family were executed. Separately, in Enga, another two women accused of killing a man with sorcery were tortured for an extended period before being burned alive in a traditional roundhouse hut that was set on fire while both victims were inside.¹¹ ACLED records at least 10 reported fatalities resulting from SARV in 2024. However, the actual number is likely to be higher as many victims and witnesses are too fearful to report incidents to police,¹² and despite sporadic civil society and government initiatives aimed at eradicating this belief, many people in both urban and rural areas of the country believe in sorcery.

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Philippines: The toll from clashes between the New People’s Army and government forces mounted

The communist New People’s Army (NPA) and the military were involved in several armed clashes in November. The violence claimed several lives despite a noticeable decrease in the number of clashes between the NPA and government forces over the past 12 months following the announcement of exploratory talks toward new peace negotiations.¹³ On 21 November, eight suspected NPA militants were killed in a clash in Negros Occidental province, Western Visayas, a heavily agricultural region with high levels of NPA activity in recent years. The next day, a clash with NPA militants killed seven military soldiers and wounded seven in Masbate province, Bicol region. November saw the highest number of reported fatalities from clashes between the NPA and state forces since June, as progress on muted peace negotiations announced in November 2023 remained vague.¹⁴

Failure to end the conflict is a point of continuity between the previous and current administrations, with differences in approach between Vice President Sara Duterte and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. becoming clearer. In 2023, Sara Duterte warned against peace overtures toward the communists, and in June 2024, she left her post as vice chair of the anti-communist government body National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict.¹⁵ However, other officials in the current administration have recently expressed optimism about the peace process.¹⁶

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South Korea: The president faces impeachment and calls for resignation

On 3 December 2024, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared an emergency martial law, the first such declaration in nearly 50 years, only to revoke it six hours later.¹⁷ The president’s move was largely a reaction to increasing political pressure and anti-government protests. Nearly 100 anti-government protest events took place in November, a significant increase from around 30 recorded in October. Yoon stated that the declaration was made to protect against what he described as “anti-state forces,” referring to the opposition groups he labeled as North Korean sympathizers.¹⁸

The growing anti-government protests called for the president’s resignation, following allegations involving Yoon and his spouse in October 2024. Protesters condemned the government for mishandling social issues such as health care reform, press suppression, and senior military officials’ cover-up of a marine’s death,¹⁹ demanding a special counsel to investigate various allegations against the couple, including accusations of improper interference in the People Power Party’s 2022 parliamentary by-election.²⁰ On 2 November, around 300,000 protesters gathered in the streets, with further protests on 9, 16, and 23 November, reportedly drawing hundreds of thousands of people, all demanding Yoon’s resignation.²¹

The protests in November were nearly entirely peaceful: ACLED records just one violent demonstration on 9 November, when demonstrators clashed with law enforcement, resulting in 11 arrests. The uptick in anti-government demonstrations contributed to November having the highest number of monthly demonstrations in 2024. Despite the martial law being lifted, the president faced the real possibility of impeachment.²² South Korea’s largest labor union, the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions, vowed to go on an indefinite strike until Yoon steps down,²³ and anti-government protests and strikes are expected to continue throughout December.

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Methodology

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