Syria: Israeli airstrikes reach an all-time high after Assad regime falls

Posted: 19 December 2024| Region: Middle East | Category: Analysis

Authors: Muaz Al Abdullah; Valentin d’Hauthuille

On 8 December 2024, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led forces took over the Syrian capital, Damascus, marking the end of 53 years of rule by the Assad family. Seeing an opportunity to increase security on its northeastern border, Israel dramatically ramped up airstrikes across Syria (see graph below). As of 15 December, ACLED records over 300 Israeli airstrike events¹ in Syria in 2024, of which more than a third took place after the fall of the Assad regime. At the current rate, Israeli strikes in December 2024 will surpass the number of strikes recorded for the entirety of 2023.

Line Graph - Weekly Israeli airstrikes in Syria 1 January 2023 - 15 December 2024

Aimed at preventing the Assad regime’s arsenal from falling into the hands of the new HTS-led authorities, the Israeli campaign destroyed between 70% and 80% of the former regime’s strategic military capabilities within the first 48 hours.² More than 65% of Israeli strikes took place in the eastern governorates of Damascus, Dara, Lattakia, and Rural Damascus (see map below). Israeli forces have also moved into the demilitarized buffer zone between the Israel-occupied Golan Heights and the rest of Syria, in violation of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement that followed the Yom Kippur War, taking control over eight villages in Quneitra, Dara, and Rural Damascus. Both the Israeli prime minister and the leader of HTS claim they are not interested in direct confrontations, amid Israeli plans to double the number of its citizens in the occupied Golan Heights.³

Visuals produced by Ana Marco.

Muaz Al Abdullah

Muaz Al Abdullah is a Middle East Research Manager at ACLED overseeing Syria, Iraq, and Iran. He has been with the organization since June 2017. Muaz holds an MA in Political Science and International Relations and has over eight years of experience working with different non-profit organizations and providing security analysis to organizations implementing projects in Syria. His research focuses on reconstruction efforts in the transitional/post-war phase in Syria.

Valentin d’Hauthuille

Valentin d’Hauthuille is the Regional Desk Coordinator for the Middle East and Europe at ACLED. In this role, he oversees the data collection in the two regions and is responsible for managing the team members. Prior to this role, he was the Gulf Research Manager at ACLED, responsible for data collection in the countries of the Arabian Peninsula, including for the Yemen conflict, and regularly contributed to analysis. He was also the Research Manager for ACLED’s pilot project on religious repression and disorder, which covered seven MENA countries, after starting at ACLED as a Yemen Researcher. Beside ACLED, he has also worked at the UN in Lebanon and in the defense sector in France. Valentin holds an MSc in Middle East Politics from the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, and a BA in International Politics from King’s College London.

Categories: ACLED Insights, Analysis19 December 2024

Regions: Middle East

Tags: Syria